SMM12, March 14: metal on the outer disk was green on Friday, and (LME) copper on the London Metal Exchange fell after hitting multi-year highs on Friday as profit-taking and fears that negotiations on the US stimulus deal and the British withdrawal trade deal could break down. The LME metal market was red this morning. As of around 09:40 in the morning, Lunni was up 2%, Len Zinc was up 1.2%, Lun Copper was up nearly 0.5%, Lun Aluminum was up nearly 0.3%, Lun lead rose slightly, and Lunxi was flat. Domestically, international copper is down 0.4%, Shanghai copper is down 0.3%, Shanghai Aluminum is down 0.4%, Shanghai lead is down 1%, Shanghai nickel is up 3%, Shanghai zinc is down 1.2%, and Shanghai tin is up 0.6%.
On the copper side, Lun Copper retreated from its high on Friday, amid concerns that the US fiscal stimulus bill would be postponed, and that Britain was increasingly likely to leave the European Union without a deal, market preference declined, and the dollar index rebounded low. there is limited room for copper to rebound at night. It is expected to be 7720-7800 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 57400-57900 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel price is high and volatile, spot trading is light and the price of stainless steel is strongly raised.
Aluminum, although the outer disk performance on Friday, but the ECB as expected to increase the size of loose, is expected to form a sustained positive for the base metal, Zhenlun aluminum; In terms of Shanghai Aluminum, the capital loose superimposed inventory low is still a strong support to the market, but the recent fundamental supply is slowly rising, while the demand side has signs of seasonal weakening, we need to continue to pay attention to changes in market sentiment, and the delivery period is approaching, the monthly gap is widening, and Shanghai Aluminum is dominated by strong shocks in the short term.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the first stage of the second stage of Shenhuo in Yunnan was successfully electrified. Last week, the downstream construction of aluminum was slightly weaker than the previous week.
Lead, the outer disk metal fell last Friday, Lun lead concussion lower immediately after the opening, with last week's lme base metal rushing back down the pace, and finally closed three consecutive negative. Last Friday night, Shanghai lead was affected by the general decline in basic metals except nickel at home and abroad, superimposed by the light consumption of the domestic lead battery market, and finally fell below the first line of 14800. This week, it entered the off-season of traditional trading in mid-late December. We need to start paying attention to the spot market procurement plan and the smelter winter maintenance.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the social inventory of lead ingots increased greatly in the low consolidation of lead ingots in Lun lead, San Lianyin and Shanghai.
In terms of zinc, the downside of the outer disk on Friday was a drag on the weak operation of Zinc in Shanghai. According to SMM research, social inventory continues to be removed, galvanized plates due to northern environmental production restrictions superimposed seasonal weakness drag some galvanized structural parts consumption, but galvanized sheet orders in home appliances and cars can still support galvanized consumption, die-casting zinc alloy plates in hardware, zipper performance, zinc consumption toughness still exists. In the short term, if there is no big bad macro, zinc prices will still be strong volatility.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the outer disk dragged down Shanghai Zinc last Friday and recorded a negative column.
In terms of nickel, fundamentals, although there is no strong support and good news, it is also a marginal improvement pattern. Spot prices and market sentiment have stabilized after the production reduction plans of Synchronize in both stainless steel plants and nickel pig iron plants. On the other hand, under the condition that the consumption of electrolytic nickel market is stable and the import volume is limited by the ratio, the domestic inventory decreases to the annual low, which tends to be more profitable. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel is 123000-133000 yuan / ton, Lunni is 16300-17800 US dollars / ton. After the surge, in the short term, pay attention to the increasing short pressure after the macro-positive overdraft.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel price is high and volatile, spot trading is light and the price of stainless steel is strongly raised.
On the tin side, LME tin inventories have been declining recently and are now at their lowest level since June this year. A weaker dollar and overall tight supply at home and abroad support tin prices below. Lunxi has continued to rise in the past two weeks, and the technical side is already in an overbought area, focusing on possible technical adjustments, with a resistance of $20000 / ton above and a support of $19000 / ton below.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the overall strength of tin prices during the continued weakness of the US dollar
In terms of black, thread fell nearly 1.8%, hot coil fell 0.8%, coking coal fell 3%, coke fell 1.9%, iron ore fell 1.2%, stainless steel rose 3%, thread, the supply of rebar is stable and demand is slightly weaker, the fundamentals are still slightly weak, coupled with the market after this week's "carnival", fear of heights ferment, spot prices are likely to go through a cooling-off period. However, mineral prices are skyrocketing, the cost of steel mills is soaring, the willingness to stand up on Synchronize is enhanced, and the cost support of steel prices is gradually reflected, so it is expected that steel prices will enter a weak and volatile period in the short term, while the upper side resistance will be gradually reflected, while the lower space will be squeezed.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] there is still strong support for the sharp rise in iron ore prices in the short term.
Crude oil fell 0.3% in the previous period, and oil prices closed lower on Friday as demand concerns caused by novel coronavirus restrictions in New York outweighed the impact of the progress of the vaccination program. Analysts pointed out that New York restrictions put pressure on oil prices, and the fund made net long bets on Thursday as the price of Brent crude broke through $50 a barrel. As we approach the close, speculators are reluctant to go home with net long positions.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell 0.3%, while Shanghai silver fell 0.7%. Comex gold futures closed higher on Friday as precious metals investors reacted to the fiscal stimulus stalemate in Washington, the prospect of Brexit in the UK and some signs of rising commodity prices in the US. Gold prices rose this week. Gold prices rose slightly in intraday trading on Friday after U. S. consumer confidence data were released. Democratic euphoria over Biden's victory in the presidential election has driven the market atmosphere high, but many economic indicators point to a worsening economy.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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