SMM11 March 16: last Friday, the outer disk metal market collectively closed higher. In early trading today, most of the LME metal market was red, Lun Copper and Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.6%, Lun Ni and Lun Al rose nearly 0.3%, Lun Xi was flat, and Lun lead fell nearly 0.1%. Domestically, Shanghai Copper rose nearly 1.2%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 0.8%, Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 0.6%, Shanghai Aluminium and Shanghai Tin rose nearly 0.4%, and Shanghai lead rose nearly 0.2%. In China, Shanghai copper rose nearly 1.2%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.8%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.6%, Shanghai aluminum and tin rose nearly 0.4%, and Shanghai lead rose nearly 0.2%. The dollar continued to fall on Monday after it fell on Friday as a rebound in risk appetite boosted US stocks and hit Treasuries while the number of novel coronavirus cases continued to rise. The selling of real money accounts hits the exchange rate of the US dollar, the trading volume is moderate, and most currency pairs are in a relatively narrow range.
On the copper side, the overnight dollar index fell back, and risk appetite boosted the three major US stock indexes to close at an all-time high. On the macro level, China's manufacturing industry has recovered steadily, and the manufacturing industry of major global economic systems has also continued to recover. in addition, with Biden about to be elected president of the United States, uncertainties have been reduced, giving some support to copper to a certain extent. however, the number of new cases of the novel coronavirus epidemic is still surging, and the interference of the epidemic on economic recovery is still the biggest uncertainty at present.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Copper prices are supported by a steady recovery in China's manufacturing sector
Lead, Lun lead closed four Lianyang, the dollar index fell, risk aversion mood is still in, guard against the future dollar stronger crackdown on lead prices. Lead prices in Shanghai closed down at night, and the rising momentum of lead prices was still limited by smelters and the gradual resumption of production of recycled lead. The general rise of metal in the outer disk has a certain boost to Shanghai lead, and it is expected that Shanghai lead will still show a concussive trend in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the social inventory of lead ingots has greatly increased in Lunlian lead, Lianyang, Shanghai, Shanghai, high-level concussion lead ingots.
In terms of zinc, the weak US dollar superimposed the US close to support non-ferrous gains, boosted by expectations of new fiscal stimulus policies and good news for vaccines, and market optimism heightened, but the continued fermentation of overseas epidemics is expected to depress the upside of Lun Zinc. In terms of Shanghai zinc, the continued downward adjustment of TC indicates that the supply at the mine end is tight, but it has not yet been transmitted to the smelter, the smelter side still maintains high output, the superimposed social inventory increases, the consumer side support is insufficient, and the expected short-term zinc price volatility is weak.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] consumption support is weakening. Shanghai Zinc short-term shock is weak.
In terms of nickel, in terms of fundamentals, 300 series stainless steel shows a weak impact on the price of nickel industry chain products, and the weak atmosphere may continue, but stainless steel output is still high, but the margin is limited. In addition, the domestic electrolytic nickel supply is still tight, and the trend of warehouse reduction continues. On the whole, the fundamentals establish the high shock pattern of nickel price. In addition, more attention needs to be paid to the macro impact. For example, last week, the general rise of metals was affected by the update progress of novel coronavirus vaccine.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Russo Nickel spot firm Jinchuan Shengshui still has room to fall back. 304stainless steel trading performance is poor.
Tin, the spot market last Friday little change, the mainstream of the market: Yun Xi Shengshui 400-600 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi discount 500-600 yuan / ton, small brand discount 500-800 yuan / ton. Market trading is not smooth, some downstream hope that prices will fall further before entering the market for procurement. Today's forecast: Shanghai tin to maintain a volatile trend, the market demand is insufficient, today's spot is expected to maintain at 145500-146500 yuan / ton.
"[11.16 Forecast of Tin prices Today]
In terms of black, the thread fell nearly 0.3%, the hot coil rose nearly 0.3%, coke rose nearly 0.8%, coking coal fell nearly 1.5%, and iron ore fell nearly 1%. Recently, the downstream production and marketing data feedback, plate downstream demand continues to exceed expectations. According to SMM, with the help of increasing subsidies for new energy vehicles in China, sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly. Figures show that China sold 160000 new energy vehicles in October, up 104.5 per cent from a year earlier. At the same time, the export of small household appliances, refrigerators and some large household appliances has improved, stimulating strong demand for cold rolling and driving up demand for coil. Then superimposed the return of overseas manufacturing orders, stimulating this part of the demand to pick up. Therefore, the overall demand for coil is still preferred and is expected to be maintained in the short term.
[SMM Weekly selection] downstream demand is higher than expected and is now going higher hand in hand.
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 1.3%, and US oil fell more than 2% on Friday, brushing its recent three-day low to US $40.06 per barrel. Major US cities will impose stricter epidemic prevention restrictions because the novel coronavirus epidemic may derail demand, and EIA said US crude oil stocks rose unexpectedly last week. But the market was buoyed by the news of vaccine breakthroughs earlier in the week, with US oil rising 7% this week, the biggest weekly increase in a month.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.6%, Shanghai silver rose nearly 3.2%, and international spot gold prices rose on Monday as the dollar weakened and the rising case of novel coronavirus in the United States raised concerns about the impact of the epidemic on the pace of economic recovery. Spot gold brushed a new four-day high of $1896.82 an ounce on Friday as the dollar weakened again as U. S. stocks climbed.
As of 09:40, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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