SMM10 March 14: yesterday, the outer disk metal fell across the board, including Lun Copper fell on Tuesday, due to the impact of strong trade data from China, the largest consumer, was overshadowed by the strengthening of the US dollar and the news that Johnson suspended clinical trials of novel coronavirus vaccine. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:40, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Copper and Lun Aluminum rose nearly 0.1%, Lunxi was flat, Lun lead fell nearly 0.1%, Lun Nickel fell nearly 0.3%, most of the domestic non-ferrous metals were green, Shanghai lead fell nearly 1.9%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.9%, Shanghai Copper and Shanghai Nickel fell nearly 0.3%, Shanghai Tin fell nearly 0.2%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 0.4%.
On the copper side, the US fiscal stimulus talks remained deadlocked, the two parties disagreed on the scale of the stimulus, and the dollar index rose significantly at night, rising above the 93.5 mark, while linked copper fell slightly at night. In addition, COVID-19 's global number of new cases in a single day continues to hit new highs. Yesterday, Lilly and Johnson in the United States suspended clinical trials of the vaccine, and the market became more pessimistic about the rebound of the second epidemic, limiting the room for copper futures to rise to a certain extent. It is expected to be 6650-6730 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 50800-51400 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the rebound of the second epidemic aggravates the pessimistic mood of copper spot and falls into a seesaw situation.
As for aluminum, concerns about the epidemic will always be an important macro factor affecting aluminum prices. in addition, we need to pay attention to the news released by the US election process and the impact of the US government's remarks on economic development on market sentiment. On the domestic side, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong range in the early post-festival period. In the short term, the current structure of low inventory is stable, the spread of aluminum structure in Shanghai is opening near delivery, and the trend of contracts in recent months is strong. In the later stage, we pay attention to inventory changes, consumption feedback in the fourth quarter and the actual impact of this year's heating season on the upstream and downstream.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Aluminium export rebounded month-on-month. Processing fee of aluminum bar and aluminum rod is adjusted under pressure.
In terms of lead, lun lead weakens and gains negative, so we should be on guard against the impact of a stronger dollar on the price of lead. Overnight Shanghai lead trend closely follows Lun lead, jump down, expected short-term lead price shock trend. The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to fall by 125-175 yuan per ton today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Lun lead Shanghai lead closed down recycled lead discount to expand downstream procurement bias towards recycled lead
In terms of zinc, Shanghai zinc, affected by overseas macro sentiment overnight, Shanghai zinc followed down. According to SMM research, although domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline in October, from the October production plans of various smelters, there are no domestic refineries planned to be overhauled for the time being. it is expected that the output of refined zinc will increase slightly month-on-month in October, and the pressure on the supply side will be weakened. Pay attention to macro guidance in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc outer disk weakening, superimposed supply-side pressure weakening, short-term concern macro guidance
On the nickel side, as negotiations on the US fiscal stimulus package were once again blocked, clinical trial research on Johnson and novel coronavirus vaccine was suspended, market sentiment was cautious, and the dollar index rose strongly. Metal pressure down the whole line, overnight Shanghai nickel closed in the small negative column, Shanghai nickel center of gravity around the 40-day moving average, k-column waist through the Boll line in the middle of the track, the dollar index opened slightly lower, today focus on whether the metal can rebound, pay attention to whether Shanghai nickel can once again stand on the 117000 mark.
[minutes of the Morning meeting] Nickel prices fluctuated at high levels to curb spot trading between stainless steel plants and high nickel pig iron manufacturers.
In terms of black, coke fell nearly 0.6%, coking coal nearly 1.4%, iron ore nearly 0.4%, coke nearly 0.5%, coking coal nearly 1.4%, iron ore nearly 0.5%, hot rolls. According to SMM statistics, the volume of goods arrived this week decreased significantly compared with the National Day period, and the markets basically returned to a relatively normal level. It is estimated that the total resources will arrive at 213000 tons, a decrease of 179000 tons in the quarter-on-month section. In the follow-up to the East China market, the resources are mainly long-term association, and the supply-side increment is relatively limited in the short term. On the demand side, although the heat of centralized replenishment weakens after the festival, the actual demand does not change much, and the subsequent release is more stable. Therefore, in the short term, the East China market is still dominated by inventory reduction, spot prices with the decline in inventory, it is expected to be difficult to have large fluctuations, more interval shock trend.
[summary of SMM Steel Morning meeting] the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mill has increased by 3.79% compared with that in the section, and the rebar supply pressure still exists.
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 0.6 per cent, while US crude oil futures closed up nearly 2 per cent on Tuesday, as support from China's strong economic data outweighed the impact of a rebound in supply in other regions, but as the number of new COVID-19 cases increased, the prediction that the recovery in global oil demand will slow limits the rise in oil prices. China's crude oil imports rose 2.1 per cent in September from a month earlier, with some shipments finally cleared after months of port congestion eased and land storage capacity expanded, according to Chinese customs data.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 2%, Shanghai silver fell nearly 4.6%, and stainless steel fell nearly 0.7%. On the one hand, as negotiations on the next round of US economic stimulus package stalled, the pound fell sharply against the dollar. the dollar index rose overnight to its biggest gain in more than two weeks and rose above 93.5 points, while gold and silver were under pressure. On the other hand, IMF yesterday raised its forecast for global economic growth this year, forecasting a 4.4 per cent contraction in global GDP in 2020 and 5.2 per cent in June. And said the economy is recovering faster than initially expected and that it may be necessary to reduce stimulus measures around the world. This also suppresses the composition of precious metals.
As of 09:40, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
![[SMM Analisis Makro] Sinyal Hawkish The Fed di Jackson Hole, Meningkatkan Ekspektasi Kenaikan Suku Bunga September](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VCNvX20251217171735.jpeg)
