Macro Roundup (Sep 12)

SHANGHAI, Sept 12 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar fell against the Canadian dollar, which was buoyed by as the two nations resumed negotiations on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on Tuesday. Both Canada's Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and US President Donald Trump said discussions were productive so far. The US dollar inched down 0.08% to settle at 95.07. 

Base metals, except for LME tin, dipped across the board as LME lead led the losses and closed 2.21% lower. LME zinc slumped 1.78%, nickel lost 1.57%, aluminium fell 1.3%, and SHFE nickel went down 1.27%, zinc declined 1.18%, and aluminium slid 1.02%.  

The ZEW's measure of economic sentiment climbed to -10.6 from -13.7 in August, the Mannheim-based think tank said. Economist had expected a slight decline in the index to -14.

"During the survey period, the currency crises in Turkey and Argentina intensified, while German industrial production and incoming orders were surprisingly low in July," ZEW President Achim Wambach said.

"Despite these unfavourable circumstances, economic expectations for Germany improved slightly," Wambach added.

US sales across wholesale products were unchanged in July after they dipped 0.2% in June. There were declines in sales of motor vehicles, furniture, professional equipment, and computer equipment. 

Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% instead of gaining 0.7% as reported last month. Stocks at wholesalers edged up 0.1% in June.

Given strong domestic demand, businesses are likely to grow stocks of goods, which should underpin production at factories. Economists expect inventory accumulation to significantly contribute to GDP growth in the third quarter.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a major draw of 8.636 million barrels of the US crude oil inventories for the week ended September 7, compared with an expected fall of 750,000 barrels. This marked the fourth consecutive week of decline.

The API reported a build in gasoline inventories for the week ending September 7 in the amount of 2.122 million barrels, the biggest week-on-week increase since December 2017. 

Day ahead

Market participants should monitor data including the US producer price index (PPI) for August, and its EIA weekly crude inventory data.