NBS: China Aluminum Output Grows Notably in June

[Geopolitical Risk Premium Exits Market, Aluminum Prices Under Short-Term Pressure and Volatility] On the macro front, the US and Iran have completed signing an electronic MOU. Expectations of geopolitical easing continue to materialize, market panic over the Middle East conflict continues to fade, and the geopolitical risk premium for commodities has weakened significantly. US May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, hitting a three-year high, while core CPI also strengthened. The market continues to bet on the Fed restarting rate hikes within the year, and expectations of tightening liquidity continue to suppress metal valuations. On the fundamentals side, the Middle East conflict caused involuntary production cuts in overseas aluminum capacity. Expectations of a global supply deficit continue to widen, and coupled with expectations of rising energy costs, this provides strong bottom support for LME aluminum. China’s inventory destocking trend has been established, and the destocking logic continues to be realized. The rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum, support from export demand, and supply normalization compressing aluminum ingot formation—these three fundamental factors jointly drive the continuation of destocking. SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June/early July, bringing some support to aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively pronounced. Coupled with the currently bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, short-term domestic aluminum prices are mainly in the doldrums, with volatile adjustments.

Menurut laporan media asing, berdasarkan permohonan dari sejumlah perusahaan termasuk Hindalco Industries dan SRF Altech, India telah memutuskan untuk memperpanjang bea masuk anti-dumping atas aluminium foil dengan ketebalan hingga 80 mikron yang diimpor dari China, Malaysia, Thailand, dan Indonesia hingga 15 Desember 2026. Sebelumnya, pada 29 September 2025, Direktorat Jenderal Pemulihan Perdagangan (DGTR) Kementerian Perdagangan dan Perindustrian India telah memulai tinjauan sunset atas impor aluminium foil dari keempat negara tersebut.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] Stok ingot aluminium sekunder di wilayah konsumsi utama Tiongkok berada di 24.600 mt, turun 570 mt dari hari sebelumnya, dengan laju pengosongan stok yang semakin cepat.