Aluminum Liquid Aluminum Proportion Increased More Than Expectations in May, Expected to Edge Up in June [SMM Analysis]

SMM May 29 News:

According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in May 2026 (31 days) was up 2.1% YoY and up 3.8% MoM.

Although the pace of China's end-use demand recovery remained slow, the widening aluminum supply gap outside China significantly boosted domestic aluminum semis export demand, which in turn provided effective support for liquid aluminum consumption in China, driving apparent consumption to maintain positive growth. The proportion of liquid aluminum in China edged up, with the monthly proportion up 1.1 percentage points MoM to 76.5%, slightly above expectations at the beginning of the month, with the core incremental growth coming from export orders strengthening beyond expectations.

Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminum calculation data, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in May declined 1.2% YoY and fell 0.9% MoM.

Capacity changes: As of month-end May, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminum capacity at approximately 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change.

Production forecast: Entering June 2026, overall, as demand in markets outside China recovers, China's aluminum semis export orders are expected to continue improving, supporting a slight rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise 0.1 percentage points to 76.6%.

[Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

Data source: SMM