SMM May 26 update:
Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current-month 2606 contract were quoted at a discount of 170 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with an average quote at a discount of 75 yuan/mt. During the morning session, the SHFE copper 2606 contract opened lower with a gap and experienced multiple rounds of decline and rebound. The opening price was 105,570 yuan/mt. After opening, prices quickly dropped to 105,080 yuan/mt, stabilized and rebounded to 105,280 yuan/mt, then continued to decline, hitting a low of around 104,600 yuan/mt before recovering to trade between 104,600 yuan/mt and 105,020 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 104,900 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango spread ranged from 150 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2606 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 470 yuan/mt to a loss of 380 yuan/mt.
Intraday, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.67, up 0.03 MoM, and the procurement sentiment was 2.64, up 0.09 MoM. Historical data can be accessed via the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at a discount of 140 yuan/mt to a discount of 100 yuan/mt, with Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC quoting cargoes with invoices dated this month at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to a discount of 100 yuan/mt, while Zhongtiaoshan, Jinfeng, and Zijin quoted at a discount of 140 yuan/mt to a discount of 130 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers quickly lowered their prices. Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC quoted cargoes with invoices dated this month at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a discount of 100 yuan/mt, and cargoes with invoices dated next month at a discount of 150 yuan/mt to a discount of 120 yuan/mt. Zhongtiaoshan PC, Jinfeng, Zijin, and Yuguang quoted cargoes with invoices dated next month at a discount of 170 yuan/mt to a discount of 160 yuan/mt. Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, and Jinfeng quoted cargoes with invoices dated this month at a discount of 100 yuan/mt for ex-factory pickup. High-quality copper was scarce, so quotes remained firm, with Jinchuan high-purity, Jintun large-plate, and Guiye quoting cargoes with invoices dated this month at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. Entering the second trading session, prices saw no significant changes. Jinguan, Jinxin, and Jintun PC were successively traded at a discount of 130 yuan/mt to a discount of 100 yuan/mt for ex-factory pickup with invoices dated this month. Tongguan was successively traded at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a discount of 30 yuan/mt for ex-factory pickup with invoices dated this month. Non-registered copper was successively traded at a discount of 320 yuan/mt to a discount of 290 yuan/mt with invoices dated next month.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices edged down intraday, activating some buying interest, but downstream enterprises overall still focused on just-in-time procurement with limited willingness to chase higher prices. In terms of invoice structure, the price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and next month remained at around 40 yuan, and the periodic shortage of invoices persisted. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, potentially widening slightly.
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