Tightening Liquidity Expectations Strengthen, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure with Short-Term Volatility [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes]
[Tightening Liquidity Expectations Strengthen, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure with Short-term Fluctuations] On the macro front, the US and Iran plan to sign a letter of intent to formally end hostilities and initiate 30-day negotiations, with geopolitical risk trends still remaining to be seen; the US Fed meeting minutes were far more hawkish than expectations, with most policymakers supporting policy tightening, and tightening liquidity expectations are overall bearish for metal prices. On the fundamentals side, supply gaps outside China and low inventory still provide bottom support, but inventory at high levels in China remains the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Additionally, weak spot market transaction performance further limits upside room for aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to continue the pattern of LME outperforms SHFE, fluctuating at highs in the short term.