SMM May 15 update:
SMM #1 lead ingot was in the doldrums this week. Smelter offers remained generally firm, and spot prices of secondary refined lead and primary lead became inverted. At the beginning of the week, smelter offers diverged, with premiums shifting slightly from small discounts to marginal premiums. Downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement and relied on long-term contracts. Mid-week, as smelting losses widened, smelters held back from selling and held prices firm, with offers stabilizing at premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Market trading activity turned sluggish. Later in the week, some smelters resumed production and supply increased, weakening the sentiment to hold prices firm. Offers returned to near parity, but downstream sectors were in the off-season with insufficient rigid demand, and overall transactions remained weak.
The decline in spot prices exacerbated smelting losses. As of May 14, large smelters posted losses of 249 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted losses of 452 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, lead ingot inventory buildup and weak downstream consumption are expected to keep lead prices in the doldrums, with smelter losses persisting. On the supply side, production resumptions at some smelters coexist with output cuts and shutdowns triggered by environmental protection and profitability concerns. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts is expected to intensify, and spot premiums are expected to move sideways within the range of parity to premiums of 50 yuan/mt.
