Hudbay Acquired Arizona Sonoran, LME Copper Edged Up Overnight and SHFE Copper Closed Higher [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.5.14 Thursday
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,142/mt, with copper prices gradually shifting lower to $14,058/mt in early trading, then swung wildly upward to touch $14,175/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $14,083/mt, up 0.02%. Trading volume reached 22,600 lots, and open interest reached 275,000 lots, up 1,876 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at and touched a low of 108,110 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to probe 10,980 yuan/mt, followed by wild swings to finally close at 108,520 yuan/mt, up 0.38%. Trading volume reached 45,000 lots, and open interest reached 201,000 lots, down 3,326 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On May 12 (Tuesday), diversified miner Hudbay Minerals' proposal to acquire Arizona Sonoran Copper Company in an all-stock transaction valued at $1.48 billion was approved by the latter's shareholders. The deal, first announced in March, is expected to create the third-largest copper mining district in North America, combining Arizona Sonoran's Cactus project with Hudbay's Copper World development project. Arizona Sonoran noted that, assuming all remaining approvals are obtained and all other remaining conditions precedent are satisfied or waived, the transaction is likely to be completed in Q2 this year.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On May 13, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current-month 2605 contract were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to parity, with an average discount of 35 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 108,200–108,800 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE copper 2605 opened higher and then moved sideways with a fluctuating trend. The opening price was 107,850 yuan/mt, after which prices jumped up to 108,710 yuan/mt, then fluctuated between 108,300 yuan/mt and 108,800 yuan/mt. Copper prices then began to decline from the high of 108,810 yuan/mt, probing down to 108,150 yuan/mt before stabilizing and rebounding, with a closing price of 108,440 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 90 to 20 yuan/mt, and the SHFE copper import profit margin against the 2605 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 290 yuan/mt to a loss of 190 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, copper prices continue to fluctuate at highs, downstream purchasing sentiment remains subdued, and both intraday buying and selling sentiment pulled back, with spot discounts continuing to widen. According to SMM, downstream orders continued to decline from the previous day, with procurement driven mainly by rigid demand and limited willingness to chase higher prices. From a market structure perspective, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts is maintained in the 90-20 yuan/mt range. As the 05 contract delivery date approaches, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse is strengthening, and delivery logic is expected to provide bottom support for spot discounts, limiting further significant downside. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount today, with a generally weak tone but limited downside room.
(2) Guangdong: On May 13, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 270 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,745 yuan/mt, up 1,660 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,640 yuan/mt, up 1,660 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, suppliers continued to be bullish on premiums and held prices firm on shipments amid high copper prices, making spot trades very sluggish.
(3) Imported copper: On May 13: The average warrant price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $70/mt (price range: $66-74/mt); the average B/L price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $67/mt (price range: $65-71/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose $2/mt from the previous trading day to $38/mt (price range: $36-44/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late May.
(4) Secondary copper: On May 13, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 108,440 yuan/mt, up 1,590 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was -35 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On May 13, copper scrap prices rose 700 yuan/mt MoM. The copper scrap sales sentiment index fell to 2.7, and the purchase sentiment index fell to 2.04. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,383 yuan/mt, up 803 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,550 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, although copper prices continued to rise, downstream finished product destocking speed slowed, leading to less active raw material purchasing. Buyers began to push for lower prices on purchases, while copper scrap suppliers were unwilling to sell at low prices. As a result, both buying and selling sentiment for copper scrap declined to varying degrees during the day.
Prices: Macro perspective, US April PPI surged 1.4% MoM and climbed 6% YoY, marking the largest increase since 2022. Positive progress was made in Iran diplomatic negotiations, coupled with the confirmation of a visit to China. Amid multiple intertwined developments, copper prices overall maintained a fluctuating trend. Fundamentals side, with the delivery period approaching, suppliers showed increased willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, and overall spot circulation remained tight; however, persistently rising copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and actual market trades were sluggish. Overall, the short-term tug-of-war between longs and shorts in copper prices remained balanced, and futures were expected to continue moving sideways today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]