Aluminum Alloy 2606 Futures Decline, Spot Prices Stable Amid Weak Demand

Xinbo Shares (003038.SZ) announced that its subsidiary Anhui Xinbo New Energy Vehicle Parts Co., Ltd. plans to carry out the investment and construction of the "New Energy Annual Production of One Million Sets of Lightweight High-end Aluminum Parts Project." The project has a total investment of approximately 100 million yuan, with funding to be sourced through the company's own funds or self-raised capital. The project primarily serves internationally renowned automobile OEMs, with a construction period of six months. Upon completion, the project will help the company further expand the NEV parts market and cultivate new profit growth drivers.

Futures: Based on futures data combined with technical indicators, the most-traded alumina 2609 contract moved sideways last night with shrinking volume. Prices fluctuated around 2,790 yuan/mt, with a high-low range of only 19 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 2,792 yuan/mt, basically flat with the opening price. Trading volume contracted significantly (down 111,000 lots), while open interest edged up by 4,060 lots, indicating that both bulls and bears were becoming cautious at current price levels, lacking willingness to take the initiative. On the technical side, MA5 (2,791) was basically aligned with the closing price, forming weak short-term support; MA10 (2,803.5), MA20 (2,835.15), and MA40 (2,822.43) were all in bearish alignment above the price, creating layers of resistance. Current prices were below all major moving averages, with the overall technical pattern leaning bearish. In the short term, prices are expected to remain in the doldrums within the 2,785–2,805 yuan/mt range, awaiting a directional breakout.

[Macro Tailwinds and Inventory Pressure Coexist, Limiting Upside Room for Aluminum Prices] Current macro tailwinds are being released in a concentrated manner, the global rigid supply gap for aluminum has been confirmed, and China’s aluminum ingot inventory has entered initial destocking. Multiple positive factors are providing support for aluminum prices. However, inventory at high levels in China remains the core factor suppressing a sharp price surge. In addition, spot market trading has been relatively weak, and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes this year have been heating up, further limiting upside room for aluminum prices. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether China’s aluminum ingot inventory can maintain sustained destocking, thereby easing the pressure that inventory at high levels exerts on aluminum prices.