[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices fluctuated at highs on April 16; China's Q1 GDP grew 5.0% YoY

SMM Nickel News, April 16:

Macro and market news:

(1) The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released China's Q1 2026 national economic performance data today. According to preliminary estimates, GDP in Q1 reached 33,419.3 billion yuan, up 5.0% YoY in real terms, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from Q4 last year.

(2) US White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt stated on April 15 local time that the US had not formally requested an extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, calling related reports "inaccurate," and that both sides were still in ongoing contact and advancing negotiations.

Spot market:

On April 16, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,550 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -600 to 600 yuan/mt.

Futures market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract pulled back slightly during the night session, held up well in the morning session, and closed at 141,890 yuan/mt in the morning session, up 0.52%.

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially confirmed the implementation of the revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) calculation formula starting April 15, 2026, which is expected to significantly raise the floor support for nickel prices, driving a sharp rally in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well on sentiment following the release of the new pricing formula. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual cost increase after the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM formula.