Geopolitical Conflicts Remained Volatile, Platinum and Palladium Fluctuated Upward During the Week [SMM Weekly Review]

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 6 – April 10), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 502.9 yuan/gram and closed at 521.45 yuan/gram, up 19.2 yuan/gram or 3.82% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 529.5 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 496.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 377.85 yuan/gram and closed at 385.05 yuan/gram, up 7.65 yuan/gram or 2.03% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 399.85 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 366.2 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,133 lots with a total turnover of 9.348 billion yuan and open interest of 15,303 lots, a WoW decrease of 1,287 lots. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 11,379 lots with a total turnover of 4.348 billion yuan and open interest of 7,216 lots, a WoW increase of 88 lots.

US-Iran conflict, Israel launched its most intense airstrikes on Lebanon to date. On April 9, the Speaker of Iran's Parliament issued a statement saying that three key provisions in the proposal (comprehensive ceasefire, airspace security, and uranium enrichment rights) had been violated before negotiations even began, and under such circumstances, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations would be unreasonable. Iranian media issued a statement claiming the Strait of Hormuz had been fully closed. US Fed monetary policy, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson noted that employment faced downside risks while inflation faced upside risks. Nick Timiraos wrote that the ceasefire agreement made the US Fed's decision-making more difficult, as energy fluctuations persisted, leading to a prolonged period of rates being held steady.

Tariff side, tariff policy has been one of the core political assets during Trump's administration. If high tariffs cannot be maintained through legal channels, his political influence and foreign negotiation leverage will be significantly weakened. After the "reciprocal tariffs" were overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration implemented temporary tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act in the short term to fill the policy vacuum, and in the medium and long-term may rely on Sections 232 and 301 to sustain a high-tariff policy framework, while threatening on social media to impose 50% tariffs on countries providing military weapons to Iran. Against this backdrop, the final determination in the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Russian unwrought palladium is highly likely to maintain the affirmative conclusions of the preliminary ruling.

Additionally, the tariff illegality ruling triggered massive tax refund pressures, exacerbating the US fiscal burden, and after geopolitical premiums are digested, will reinforce the "weak US dollar" logic. Palladium new demand, attention should be paid to China's fiberglass industry's transition from platinum to palladium. Starting April 2026, full-year testing will be conducted, and if successful, annual demand could reach 800,000 ounces, potentially offsetting declining demand from the automotive industry. Watch for palladium test results in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the US International Trade Commission's final-stage injury hearing on the palladium anti-dumping and countervailing duty case on April 27. Watch for the transition following LBMA's appointment of IBA as the platinum and palladium price auction administrator.