SMM Nickel Market Morning Comment Fully (Apr 10)

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened at 137,630 yuan/mt, and closed at 137,090 yuan/mt, up 470 yuan/mt compared with the last trading day. Trading volume increased by 32,962 lots to 222,839 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,638 lots to 85,742 lots. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract fluctuated downward to the lowest point of 135,680 yuan/mt after opening, and rebounded gradually, with the final increase of 0.85%.

Pure Nickel: On April 9th, Jinchuan quoted a premium of 2,500-2,600 yuan/mt, averaging 2,550 yuan/mt, down by 150 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Norilsk Nickel quoted a premium of -500 to -200 yuan/mt, averaging -350 yuan/mt, unchanged compared to the previous day. SHFE showed strong performance in the morning, with overall stability in the spot market. The price of nickel beans today was 132,400-133,300 yuan/mt, down by 150 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day, resulting in a price difference that nickel sulfate price is 5,786 yuan/mt higher than nickel beans price.

Nickel Sulfate: On April 9th, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulfate index price was 30,394 yuan/mt, down by 42 yuan/mt from the previous working day, with a price range of 30,300-30,700 yuan/mt, unchanged on average from the previous working day. Current trading activity is low, with a lower trading center. Downstream acceptance of high-priced nickel sulfate is gradually decreasing, and the overall trading price range is shifting downwards, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing in the market.

Ferronickel: On April 9th, the average price of SMM 8-12% NPI was 931 yuan/mtu(factory tax included), up by 1 yuan/mtu from the previous working day. From the supply side, in April, nickel ore prices remained high, but Indonesian ferronickel smelters did not significantly reduce production. Affected by the inverted profit margin, some small and medium-sized domestic enterprises began to shut down, with the resumption time still under observation. After the Qingming Festival, market sentiment warmed, with stainless steel prices fluctuating upwards. However, the upstream and downstream of ferronickel are still in a stalemate, and prices remain stable. From the demand side, there were a small amount of transactions at steel mills after the holiday, with lower prices and relatively light transactions. Currently, there is still a strong wait-and-see sentiment between upstream and downstream, and transactions are still dominated by the buyers. In addition, today domestic traders transacted thousands of tons of Indonesian iron at 950 yuan/mtu for circulation between traders. Overall, the current stainless steel terminal demand remains weak, leading to relatively ample supply, and it is expected that the current ferronickel prices will fluctuate under cost support.

Stainless Steel: On April 9th, according to SMM research, although transactions in the stainless steel spot market have cooled down, the inquiry atmosphere remains active. Spot prices continued to rise today. On one hand, steel mills require market price restrictions for sales. Previously, the 300 series stainless steel ran ahead with significant losses, and there was also a certain reduction in low-priced supply. Agents and traders have a strong willingness to support prices, with good transactions in 304 cold-rolled, where private resources increased by about 100-200 yuan/mt. Hot-rolled transactions were lower than cold-rolled, with smaller increases, while the atmosphere for the 200 series also saw some uptrend. In the short term, with improved market sentiment, stainless steel spot prices are temporarily stable. On the same day, 304 cold-rolled in Wuxi was reported at 13,650-13,900 yuan/mt, 304 hot-rolled in Wuxi was reported at 13,050-13,150 yuan/mt. 316L cold-rolled in Wuxi was reported at 23,800-24,000 yuan/mt. 201J1 cold-rolled in Wuxi was reported at 8,750-8,850 yuan/mt. 430 cold-rolled in Wuxi was reported at 8,100-8,200 yuan/mt. At 10:30 am, the SHFE SS2405 contract price was 13,700 yuan/mt, with a premium of 120-370 yuan/mt for stainless steel spot in Wuxi. (Spot deburred edge = Burr edge + 170 yuan/mt).