Weekly Analysis of the Aluminium Market: Supply Recovery Below Expectations, Spot Prices Still Supported at Bottom

Given that domestic profits in the aluminium industry are still acceptable, aluminium companies have not reduced their production or high production intentions. Some market participants are considering the supply increment brought about by the recent resumption of production by individual companies and, out of a sense of risk aversion, this week's Northern market is dominated by trade merchant premiums, leading to a slight decline in spot prices in the North. However, as there are no signs of resumption of production in the mines in the Shanxi and Henan regions in the short term, and considering that some companies in the Shanxi region have recently been forced to reduce production due to insufficient ore supply, SMM believes that the downward space for aluminium prices is limited.

In the Southwest region, Yunnan electrolytic aluminium has resumed production ahead of schedule, providing some support to spot prices in the Southwest in the short term. SMM expects...