Ferrous Metal Prices Fluctuated At Highs In January, And To Move Rangebound In February Under Influence Of The Chinese New Year

Ferrous metal prices fluctuated at highs in January, with the prices dipping sharply in the first half of the month. On the macro level, domestic A-shares kept dipping. Players lacked confidence in economic growth. The macro policy window period such as the economic conference came to an end. Overall macro atmosphere was bearish. In terms of industry, tamed by profit erosions, steel mills intensively cut productions, making a big dent in raw material demand. Iron ore, coking coal and steel scrap prices declined. In terms of steel, suppressed by demand reduction, steel prices fell along with costs in January. In the second half of the month, ferrous metal prices inched up. On the one hand, the PBC announced the first reserve requirement ratio cut in 2024, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. On the other hand, constantly policy stimulus and positive macro factors such as support to real estate sector once again offered a boost to steel market. Looking forward, market activity will gradually grind to a halt in February due to the Lunar New Year, and will resume normal at the end of February. Spot transactions will diminish. Futures prices are expected to move rangebound.