Spot premiums to remain under pressure due to aluminum ingot inventory accumulation

The most-traded SHFE aluminium fluctuated downward in early trading today. Today, in east China, cargo holders mainly ship goods, but downstream stockpiling on the dip and rigid demand purchases are the main ones, and the transaction volume was average. Today's aluminum ingot inventory in Wuxi (excluding Hangzhou, Changzhou, Haian and other places) is 107,200 mt, a decrease of 1,000 mt. The spot price of aluminum ingots has turned into a small discount. SMM A00 aluminum prices discount were 10 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2402 contract, down 10 yuan/mt. The spot price was recorded at 18,920 yuan/mt. During the second trading period, the prices mainly adjusted within a narrow range. Today, the mainstream transaction price in east China rose from discount of 10 yuan/ to premium of 10 yuan/mt.

Today's spot transactions in the central China were average. Today's aluminum ingot inventory in Gongyi was about 78,000 mt, down by 4,100 mt. The circulation of spot supply is relatively loose. Due to the recent large-scale snowfall in the northern region, road transportation has been partially affected. A a small amount of inventory has been added to the downstream, and the overall rigid demand procurement is mainly. The spot price maintains a large discount. SMM central China aluminium prices discount were 170 yuan/mt against the 2402 contract, up 10 yuan/mt. The average spot price recorded at 18,760 yuan/mt, the mainstream spot transaction in early trading had a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of about 20 yuan/mt.

Overall, as the shutdown of downstream factories continued to take place during the holidays, aluminum ingots have accumulated significantly. According to SMM statistics, the national aluminum ingot inventory on Thursday was 472,000 mt, up 35,000 mt MoM and 5,000 mt compared with Jan 29. The market supply has increased, but there has been a large snowfall in the north recently, and road transportation may be affected. We need to continue to pay attention to the impact of snowfall weather on the shipment and storage of aluminum ingots. Fundamentally speaking, as the CNY is approaching, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises weakened, spot market demand declined, and the proportion of ingots in the industry gradually increased. Aluminum social inventories may enter an accumulation cycle, and the short-term spot premium is expected to mainly operate under pressure.