In November, stainless steel prices experienced an overall weak trend, with the national average price of 304 stainless steel dropping by approximately 1,400 yuan/mt MoM. Against the backdrop of supply-demand mismatch in October, stainless steel plants continued to reduce production in November, resulting in a decrease of about 4.16% MoM. During the month, the stainless steel 2401 futures contract fell to a new two-year low. The fundamentals imbalance of strong supply and weak demand in the stainless steel market has not seen much improvement. Although social inventories were down about 32,300 mt MoM, they were up about 22.45% YoY. Persistent sluggish downstream demand, coupled with a large number of warrants and difficulties in goods digestion, have contributed to this. The weak demand and cost support have kept stainless steel prices low, with high NPI inventories and increased NPI production in Indonesia adding downward pressure. Stainless steel futures and spot prices dropped significantly due to the substantial decline in raw material prices.
In December, stainless steel plants in East and South China are expected to resume production after maintenance, and stainless steel production in Indonesia is expected to increase. The operating rate of downstream processing plants decreases towards the end of the year, making it difficult for stainless steel plants to digest their inventories in the context of strong supply and weak demand. Although social inventories in November have been reduced, the conventional restocking demand from downstream industries continues to weaken, and the pre-holiday stocking demand has not been fully released. On the raw material side, high-grade NPI prices have temporarily stabilized, and domestic NPI production decreased by 2.87% MoM due to widespread losses in November. It is expected that NPI production will still decrease in December. Downside room of raw material price will be limited due to year-end stocking by stainless steel mills. Stainless steel price may be largely stable or drop slightly in December.
![[Résumé de la réunion matinale de SMM sur le nickel] La probabilité d'une hausse des taux de la Fed américaine en septembre grimpe à 66,9 %, le contrat de nickel le plus négocié au SHFE dérive à la baisse en début de séance](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/CWsEw20251217171732.jpeg)
