In November 2023, China's refined zinc output was 579,000 mt, a decrease of 25,600 mt or 4.23% month on month, but a year on year increase of 10.62%, below our expectations. The output totalled around 6.03 million mt from January to November, up 10.62% year-on-year. Domestic zinc alloy output was 93,300 mt in November, 4,800 mt lower than in the previous month.
Smelters in Shaanxi, Hunan and Yunnan stopped production and overhauled, resulting in significant output reductions. In addition, the output of some smelters in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Guangdong and other places also decreased. Smelters in Sichuan increased production and Smelters in Gansu ended maintenance, growing output.
SMM predicts that domestic refined zinc production will increase by 6,800 mt month-on-month to 585,800 mt in December 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11.41%; the cumulative output from January to December 2023 will reach 6.617 million mt, a year-on-year increase of 10.69%; the release of new production capacity in Guangxi, and the production resumption from maintenance at smelters in Hunan, Yunnan will increase the total output. The output of smelters in Shaanxi will continue to decline. The overall output increase will not be obvious.
