Aluminium ingot inventory in China fell more than expected

According to SMM, as of November 30, 2023, China's domestic aluminum ingot inventory was 598,000 mt, down 20,000 mt from November 27 and 46,000 mt WoW, but up 98,000 mt YoY. On November 13, domestic aluminum ingot inventory peaked at 694,000 mt, but quickly fell. In just half a month, it decreased by nearly 100,000 mt, with the destocking speed slightly exceeding expectations. Throughout the week, continuous rapid destocking in East China and Gongyi regions accelerated domestic inventory decline, now falling below 600,000 mt.

SMM projects that from December, due to reduced aluminum billet production in northern regions, casting volume might increase in some areas, further decreasing the overall molten aluminum ratio. Additionally, the opening of the import window could increase imported goods inflow, potentially disrupting destocking. The impact of Yunnan's reduced production may be delayed. Amid these offsetting factors, SMM expects the overall destocking trend of domestic aluminum ingots to continue, albeit slower. SMM estimates that the lowest domestic aluminum ingot inventory will fall to between 500,000 and 550,000 mt in December.