Entering March (3.10-4.10), the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish tone, and the market's expectation of a future rate hike by 50 basis points has risen to 75%. The peak season is set to help recover the domestic economy.
Although the domestic aluminium supply is expected to recover in March, the recovery in the average daily output would be limited. Output cuts in Yunnan and Guizhou, together with the recovery of downstream operations, would prompt a decline in aluminium social inventories. The expected improvement in downstream consumption will support aluminium prices. However, the current high inventory will limit any price gains. As such, SHFE aluminium prices are expected to move between 17,500-19,200 yuan/mt.
![A00 recule légèrement, la ferraille d'aluminium reste globalement stable [Analyse quotidienne de la ferraille d'aluminium]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/yOYEC20251217171653.jpg)

![[Revue quotidienne des prix de l'ADC12] Les contrats à terme sur l'aluminium fluctuent à des niveaux élevés ; le prix au comptant de l'ADC12 se consolide sur une note ferme](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/FHiZE20251217171722.jpeg)
