Macro Roundup (Jul 1)

SHANGHAI, Jul 1 —This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The British pound rose against the dollar on Thursday, as investors shrugged off official data revealing a record shortfall in the United Kingdom’s current account deficit in early 2022.

Despite the bounce, the pound has rounded off its biggest six-month drop since 2016 in the first half of 2022, down over 10% versus the dollar this year.

The pound was up 0.4% against the dollar at $1.2175, clawing back losses that had seen it trade 0.2% lower earlier in the day.

U.S. stock futures fell Thursday night after the S&P 500 closed out its worst first-half performance in decades.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 114 points lower, or 0.4%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.3% each.

Thursday marked the end of the second quarter and the first half of the year. For the quarter, the S&P 500 fell more than 16% -- its biggest one-quarter fall since March 2020. For the first half, the broader market index dropped 20.6% for its largest first-half decline since 1970. It also tumbled into bear market territory, down more than 21% from a record high set early January.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite were not spared from the onslaught. The 30-stock Dow lost 11.3% in the second quarter, putting it down more than 15% for 2022. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, suffered its biggest quarterly drop since 2008, losing 22.4%. Those losses pushed the tech-heavy composite deep into bear market territory, down nearly 32% from an all-time high set in November. It’s also down 29.5% year to date.

Oil prices sank around 3% on Thursday as OPEC+ confirmed it would only increase output in August as much as previously announced despite tight global supplies, but left the market wondering about future output.

Brent crude futures for September delivery fell $3.42, or 3%, to settle at $109.03 per barrel. The August contract, which expires on Thursday, fell $1.45, or 1.3%, to settle at $114.81 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $4.02, or 3.7%, to settle at $105.76 a barrel.

The OPEC+ group of producers, including Russia, on Thursday agreed to stick to its output strategy after two days of meetings. The producer club avoided discussing policy from September onwards.

Gold fell on Thursday and was bound for its worst quarter in five as the dollar’s strength and a hawkish rhetoric from central banks eroded the appeal of the non-yielding asset.

Spot gold fell 0.6% to $1,807.11 per ounce, en route to post a more than 6% fall for the quarter, and a third straight monthly fall. U.S. gold futures dipped 0.5% to $1,807.7.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 1.6% lower with all sectors in negative territory. Banks were lower by 2.8% as a banking supervisor in the euro zone asked lenders to assess their recession risks.