Strategy report of 2022 for Nonferrous Metals Industry: gold as Shield, Lithium Mine as Spear

Since the beginning of 2021, the non-ferrous metals sector has made great progress, with a cumulative increase of 41.04%, ranking second in the market, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 45.87 percentage points.

Sub-plate: the overall upward trend, lithium, rare earth and non-metallic new materials rose 196.7%, 94.33% and 59.35% respectively, ranking among the top three in the sub-industry, in which the lithium and rare earth industries rose significantly, and the prosperity of the plate continued to improve. The aluminum plate steadily moved up with the aluminum price center, up 50.7%.

Individual stocks: Jiangte Electric (538%), Hesheng Silicon Industry (436%), Northern rare Earth (267%), Tibet Everest (220%), Jianlong Weina (219%), Rongjie shares (215%), Dingsheng New Materials (194%), Minmetals rare Earth (185%), Shengxin Lithium Energy (159%), Tianqi Lithium Industry (145%), Lithium and rare Earth Stock list, Jiangte Motor rose 538%, highlighting the investment value of lithium plate.

Lithium: the gap of lithium ore continues to expand as a result of high demand growth.

1) supply side: the growth rate of global lithium raw material supply is lower than that of lithium salt smelting demand. Lithium raw materials: the global lithium raw material production is expected to be 515000 tons in 2021, an increase of 104000 tons (25%). In 2022, the global lithium raw material supply is 694000 tons, an increase of 179000 tons over the same period last year (+ 35%). Lithium salt is expected to smelt 350000 tons in 2021, lithium ore supply 279000 tons, a shortfall of 70000 tons; lithium salt smelting 527000 tons in 2022, lithium ore supply 361000 tons, a shortfall of 166000 tons. Demand side: the cathode material is the direct demand of lithium salt. It is estimated that the global production of positive electrodes in 2021 is 1.3382 million tons, and the demand for lithium is 439200 tons. LCE, increased by 179300 tons LCE (40.8%) compared with the same period last year. In 2022, the global output of positive electrodes was 1.9588 million tons, an increase of 620600 tons over the same period last year (+ 46%), and the demand for lithium was 618500 tons of LCE, an increase of 179000 tons of LCE (+ 40.8%).

2) Price: in 2021, the price of Q3 lithium carbonate has entered an accelerated rising stage, and now it has risen to 1.925,000 yuan / ton, a record high. We expect that in the context of the industry's high demeanor, the tight balance between supply and demand will drive prices further up, and historically high prices may only be a new starting point.

3) Investment strategy: in the short and medium term, supply shortages are superimposed by low inventories, and lithium prices are expected to continue to rise, leading to the continued release of plate profits. In the long run, it is more certain that electric vehicles and energy storage will lead to high demand growth in the future. in contrast, the upstream lithium resources development cycle is long, the capital investment is large, the supply side is difficult to increase significantly, and the lithium resource gap will continue to enlarge.

4) Core target: it is suggested to pay attention to the three main lines of domestic lithium resources: spodumene: Rongjie, Tianqi; lithium salt lake: Zangge, Koda; lithium mica: Jiangte and Yongxing.

Precious metals: gold is the best defensive asset.

1) Dollar Index: since the epidemic, the Federal Reserve has continued quantitative easing and superimposed loose fiscal policy, and the strong recovery of the US economy has led to the strengthening of the Dollar Index, but with the marginal weakening of economic growth, superimposed by high inflation and persistently unimproved employment situation, the Dollar Index is expected to gradually enter a downward cycle, supporting the price of gold. Real interest rate: the continued rise in energy prices has led to high inflation expectations, while the Fed's liquidity tightening policy has been fully priced by the market, and it is expected that under the background of high inflation superimposed by the weakening edge of economic recovery in the future, real interest rates will continue to run low or go down further, and gold prices will maintain a volatile upward trend. Fund position and price comparison: on the one hand, the gold ETF position remains high, which confirms the value of gold asset allocation under the background of stagflation; on the other hand, the gold-oil ratio and gold-copper ratio have returned to the central level, and the gold price highlights the performance-to-price ratio.

2) Investment strategy: in the short term, liquidity inflection point has not yet arrived, inflation is expected to remain high, and gold will remain high in the context of stagflation. In the medium to long term, the Fed will raise interest rates and run out of benefits; inflation will support the volatile upside of gold prices.

3) Core target: it is recommended to pay attention to the low valuation and high growth of Yintai Gold and Chifeng Gold.

Aluminum: "carbon neutralization" promotes the revaluation of the aluminum plate, and the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to usher in a new pattern of "high aluminum price and high profit".

1) supply side: the long-term production capacity of 45 million tons is superimposed on the background of "carbon neutralization". The electrolytic aluminum industry with high energy consumption and high carbon emissions has gradually entered the stage of "controlling the total amount and optimizing the stock" and will maintain low growth in the future. China's electrolytic aluminum production is expected to be about 40 million tons in 2022, an increase of 3.23% over the same period last year. China's electrolytic aluminum production in 2023 was about 41 million tons, an increase of 2.5% over the same period last year, both far below the historical growth rate of 10%. Demand side: the traditional demand is expected to gradually stabilize with the economic cycle, and the rapid growth of photovoltaic, electric vehicles and other new energy demand brings new growth points for the demand side of electrolytic aluminum.

2) Price: since the beginning of 2021, the price of electrolytic aluminum has risen by more than 30%, and it is expected that the high aluminum price of 20,000 yuan per ton will be normal.

3) Investment strategy: in the short and medium term, demand slows down with the slowdown in economic growth, the industry is expected to show a weak pattern of supply and demand, and aluminum prices are expected to maintain high shocks. In the long run, the capacity ceiling is expected to break the law of periodic fluctuations in aluminum prices, the industry to achieve a revaluation, aluminum price center is expected to continue to move up.

4) Core target: it is recommended to pay attention to Tianshan Aluminum, which is the cost leader, and Chinalco, the industry leader.