After a brief correction in July, silicon re-entered the rising range in August. According to SMM data, the latest transaction price of polycrystalline materials this week is 209216yuan / kg, with an average price of 212500 yuan / kg, with an increase of 146% during the year; the transaction price of polycrystalline compact material ranges from 207yuan / kg to 214yuan / kg, with an average price of 2.105 million yuan / ton, an increase of 143% during the year; and the transaction price of polycrystalline cauliflower is in the range of 204211yuan / kg, with an average price of 207.5 yuan / kg, with an increase of 143% during the year.
"Click to view the quotation of SMM silicon industry chain products.
The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for the photovoltaic industry. With the advent of the loading season and the promotion of the photovoltaic roof plan throughout the county, downstream power plant enterprises have lowered the threshold for full investment in IRR, from the original average of 8% to 6% or even 5.5%. The power station side gradually gives profits to the upstream component enterprises. According to the statistics of Polaris Photovoltaic Network, the lowest quotation for photovoltaic modules of 530W and above in August has reached 1.805 yuan / W.
With the obvious increase in the operating rate of leading silicon wafer manufacturers in September, the demand for silicon materials has greatly increased, and almost all of the output in September has been signed. as silicon enterprises have almost no room to sell, the price of bulk orders in the market continues to rise.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of silicon has gone up all the way, rising from 80, 000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 200000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 150% this year, and prices have risen in all aspects of the industry chain. Analysts pointed out that the silicon material construction cycle is long, the photovoltaic installation season at the end of the year is approaching, and short-term silicon prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels.
The fundamentals of photovoltaic industry continue to improve.
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology previously released the operation of China's photovoltaic industry in the first half of the year. In the first half of this year, under the guidance of the goal of "carbon peak carbon neutralization", China's photovoltaic industry maintained a trend of rapid growth, and the industrial scale continued to expand. In the first half of the year, the national output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and modules reached 238000 tons, 105GW (GW), 92.4GW and 80.2GW respectively, up 16.1%, 40%, 56.6% and 50.5% respectively over the same period last year.
In this context, the overall performance of listed companies in the photovoltaic industry is improving. Among the 77 photovoltaic listed companies, 60 photovoltaic listed companies achieved a substantial increase in net profit.
Analysis of Photovoltaic Industry chain and related stocks
The continuous rise in silicon prices is the embodiment of the photovoltaic industry entering a high economic cycle, which is directly better than the raw material suppliers, while the upstream raw material price increase will be quickly transmitted to the mid-stream crystal silicon processing equipment, batteries and components. Some component enterprises told the Financial Associated Press that they are currently reaching a consensus with downstream customers on the price increase of raw materials to promote the industrial chain, and actively seek opportunities for the price increase of raw materials to be transmitted downstream.
Among the A-share listed companies, Dongfang Risheng's wholly-owned subsidiary Juguang Silicon Industry's first phase production capacity of 12000 tons has entered standardized production after re-production, capacity expansion and double-control audit of energy consumption. At present, Daquan Energy has formed a high-purity polysilicon production capacity with an annual output of 70, 000 tons with high quality, low energy consumption and low cost. the nominal production capacity of Phase B is planned to be 35000 tons, which is expected to be completed and put into production by the end of the year. Tongwei Co., Ltd. currently has a production capacity of 20,000 tons of silicon, silicon products have been able to achieve the batch supply of N-type materials.
In addition, the Finance Union combed a list of stocks in the upper and middle reaches of the photovoltaic industry chain, of which more stocks have been intensively investigated recently.
It should be noted that according to the existing capacity and production plan, the supply and demand of polysilicon is in tight balance from 2021 to 2022, and the oversupply will begin in 2023 after intensive production in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Pacific Securities said that in the case of terminal component prices difficult to rise, silicon prices are expected to have limited room to rise.
According to a survey by UBS Securities, silicon is expected to restore the balance between supply and demand in the second quarter of next year, after which there will be a sharp drop in silicon prices, which may halve from the current 205 yuan per kilogram to about 100 yuan per kilogram.
