The market was polarized yesterday. The education plate and the real estate plate opened low and left low under the influence of bad news, with heavy plates such as liquor, medical beauty, medicine and biology taking the lead, while high-boom tracks such as military industry continued to rise in the morning, and the MINILED and semiconductor plates rebounded sharply in the afternoon. It can be seen that the outflow of funds out of the sectors suppressed by policies is concentrated in industries where there is no policy risk. At present, lithium electricity, photovoltaic, semiconductors, military industry, MINILED, seed industry and other high-prosperity tracks have no policy risks, and are relatively resistant to falls in the case of a sharp setback in the index.
Yesterday's index pattern is a falling break, according to historical experience, the index broke for the first time, and there is often the possibility of a technical rebound the next day. Due to the return of funds in late trading yesterday, lithium electricity, semiconductors and other plates are more obvious, if in the case of index rebound, it is possible to maintain the state of the strong Hengqiang.
In view of the overall adjustment of A shares yesterday, Tianfeng Securities Strategy Chief Liu Chenming made the following comments: 1, policy background: after 7.1, many policies have signs of acceleration and increase, to sum up, at present, a series of policy main lines are carried out along a vein: from efficiency priority to fairness; 2. impact on the market: in the context of this policy, the Internet, local governments, real estate, and even the whole fields and industries that affect residents' disposable income may be deeply affected. As a result, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, which is more closely related to this, reacted violently. 3. The exclusion method found that the most definite direction of the policy is to support high-end manufacturing, but recently, the turnover rate of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries has exceeded the threshold, representing emotional transition, so it is also faced with the problem of increased volatility. Considering the difference in fundamental expectations and turnover rate, the current position, military industry is the best. Some long-term conclusions are drawn: many policies are just the beginning, conform to the trend, and should not underestimate policy determination. It may be difficult to see a sustained and comprehensive aggregate stimulus policy in the follow-up. Credit policy is fragmented: protect manufacturing and small and medium-sized enterprises, and hold down local governments and real estate. The total liquidity is moderately loose so that debt risks at all levels can be gradually "de-mined". With the separation of policies, the profit expectations of various sectors of the market may also continue to be fragmented, and the phenomenon that funds will pursue a small number of high-prosperity sectors to the extreme may become the norm. High-end manufacturing may become the main line of the new cycle, and is optimistic about new energy (especially upstream), semiconductors and military industry in the medium term. The current position, the most optimistic about the military industry (the recent customer attention has increased significantly).
After the opening of trading today, the index rose, lithium electricity, semiconductors, Hongmeng concept and other plates took the lead, cobalt resources, fluorine chemicals and other plates led the rise, funds are still active in the high prosperity plate.
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