Lithium iron phosphate begins to win the "turnaround"!

Recently, there have been a lot of "gossip" about lithium iron phosphate.

Haughty American Apple has negotiated with China's Ningde era and BYD that the, Apple Car may be equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries; Tesla (Shanghai-made) Model Y plans to launch a lithium iron phosphate battery version in July; Tesla and Yiwei Lithium Energy have negotiated the supply of lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the Xilai 70 degree (KWh) battery pack will use lithium iron phosphate.

Although some of the parties "flatly deny" and some "non-committal". But behind the "gossip" one after another, what can't be concealed is the strong momentum that lithium iron phosphate is about to "return the king". The huge force is like the magma of the crater, hot and fierce, and is eager to spurt out.

Industry data show that in May this year, the single-month output of lithium iron phosphate batteries in China increased by 317.3% compared with the same period last year, reaching 8.8 GWH, accounting for 63.6% of the total output of power batteries, far exceeding the 5.0 GWH of ternary batteries. Moreover, the accumulated output of lithium iron phosphate in China from January to May was 29.9 GWh. has also exceeded the ternary. Obviously, this is a big sign: lithium iron phosphate batteries have surpassed ternary batteries in production for the first time in nearly three years.

The market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been declining since it was overtaken by Sanyuan in 2018; once upon a time, its market share was as low as 12.8%. However, since last year, lithium iron phosphate batteries have begun to rise again; with the continued strong demand downstream, the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries continues to rise, and achieved a "counterattack" against ternary batteries in May this year.

Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, who had not changed his mind about lithium iron phosphate, could not hide his excitement in this regard. Not long ago, he showed off Versailles at the China Automobile Forum in Chongqing: the BYD blade battery pulled lithium iron phosphate back from marginalization on its own. Wang Chuanfu also said that the battery capacity of the Chongqing Bishan plant has reached 20GWhh and will reach 35GWh by the end of the year.

Not long ago, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times, also said that Ningde era will gradually increase the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the next 3-4 years, while the proportion of ternary batteries will gradually decrease.

If BYD is suspected of "every potter praises his pot" in waving the flag for lithium iron phosphate, then the "competitor" Ningde era has also greatly increased the weight of lithium iron phosphate, and the signal of this reaction is very clear: lithium iron phosphate is really going to "turn around".

Lithium iron phosphate "fragrance"

However, in terms of installed capacity, iron lithium is still less than three yuan, but it is very close, and the growth rate is much higher than three yuan. Data show that the number of domestic power batteries installed in May was 9.8 GWH, an increase of 178.2% over the same period last year. Among them, the total loading of ternary batteries was 5.2GWh, an increase of 95.3 percent over the same period last year, and the total loading of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 4.5GWh, an increase of 458.6 percent over the same period last year. According to this momentum, the installed capacity of iron and lithium surpasses Sanyuan is just around the corner.

In fact, the counterattack of iron lithium on Sanyuan has already begun in terms of installed capacity. Lithium iron phosphate has been launched in 6 of the top 10 new energy models sold in the Chinese market in 2020. Popular models such as Tesla Model3, BYD Han and Wuling Hongguang Mini EV all use lithium iron phosphate batteries. Reflected in the data, sales of ternary batteries in the Chinese market in 2020 were 34.8 GWH, down 34.4% from the same period last year, while sales of lithium iron phosphate batteries were 30.8 GWH, up 49.2% from the same period last year.

At the beginning of this year, the Euler black cat cute version of the battery pack was replaced by lithium iron phosphate battery from the original ternary battery under the blow of iron lithium "hot wind". And Xiaopeng Automobile also took the lead in launching the lithium iron phosphate version P7 and G3 in the "New Power of carmaking". In addition, ideal Automobile also said in its internal letter that future models will cover the price range of 150000 yuan to 500000 yuan, and it is reported that its low-cost models will also use lithium iron phosphate batteries.

If the field of vision is enlarged again, iron lithium has already "floated incense across the sea."

In addition to Tesla and Apple, Volkswagen plans to mass-produce "standard cells" that are 50 per cent lower than their current costs in 2023, and entry-level models will use lithium iron phosphate batteries. According to industry analysts, at present, mainstream overseas new energy vehicle companies such as Tesla and Daimler have made clear the path of lithium iron phosphate battery, and it is expected that other overseas car companies, such as BMW, will also choose lithium iron phosphate solution in their electrification path, and lithium iron phosphate battery is expected to achieve global support.

Advance the "dominant position"

The greatest truths are the simplest. The logic of realizing counterattack by lithium iron phosphate is not complicated. Huachuang Securities pointed out that lithium iron phosphate batteries are being favored by more and more mainstream models. Through nearly two years of technological innovation, the current 400-600 km range of lithium iron phosphate battery has been able to meet the needs of most passenger car owners, and has more advantages in price.

Lithium iron phosphate has made up for its deficiency in terms of energy density. Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that through a series of improvements such as lithium supplement, silicon doping and the use of solid-liquid mixed electrolytes, the current energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries can break through 200Wh/Kg. The volume grouping efficiency of the battery unit to the system increased from 40% to 60%. At the beginning of this year, Guoxuan Hi-Tech unveiled its lithium iron phosphate battery with an energy density of 210Wh/kg, and its monomer energy density has reached the level of ternary NCM5 system.

In terms of cost advantage, lithium iron phosphate is even more indomitable. According to the research of Huaan Securities, lithium iron phosphate has 55% and 22% cost advantages compared with ternary at the cathode and cell level, respectively. Under the current subsidy scheme, even if the difference in subsidies is taken into account, the conversion of three yuan to iron lithium will bring a cost reduction of 9% to 11%, which will be more significant after the subsidy declines in 2021.

The safety defect of ternary battery has always been criticized, and the biggest advantage of lithium iron phosphate battery is high safety. "because the national pursuit of PACK energy density in 2020 has come to an end, raising the safety requirements to a new level, lithium iron phosphate technology has once again stood in the middle of the stage because of its good stability, safety and excellent cost advantages." Xu Xiaoming, general manager of Anchi Technology, said.

According to the Wood Mackenzie research report, cost and safety will continue to be the first factors that battery suppliers need to consider in a variety of battery application scenarios. Lithium iron phosphate is expected to become the dominant energy storage chemical in the next 10 years, and will gradually occupy a dominant position in the field of electric vehicles after gaining a foothold in the energy storage market.

Performance and cost aside, lithium iron phosphate is extremely rich in terms of supply stability and security, and has natural advantages that ternary does not have. In Wang Chuanfu's words, ternary batteries use a lot of cobalt and nickel. China has no cobalt and very little nickel. China cannot change from oil to cobalt and nickel. Batteries used on a large scale cannot rely on rare metals.

Not only can China not rely on rare metals, but when electrification comes in full swing, the whole world cannot rely on rare metals.

In the future, lithium iron phosphate is destined to be brilliant.