SMM3 March 15: in today's online live conference hosted by SMM, SMM magnesium industry analyst Liu Hao brought a keynote speech on "where is the magnesium market going after price consolidation?" the meeting mainly shared with you: magnesium market prospects at home and abroad, market prospects and price forecasts, as well as the introduction of SMM magnesium price methods.
Review of domestic market
Spot shortage: getting rid of inventory at the beginning of the year is smooth, and there are more factory futures orders. The rapid rise in prices triggered a rush in the market: in-situ New year led to early resumption of work, and rapidly rising prices did not leave much time downstream.
Ferrosilicon is strong and high: ferrosilicon operates at a high level, which is affected by the double control of energy consumption in Mongolia. At present, ferrosilicon factories in Baotou, Bameng and Hohhot have stopped production. Dachang stopped production of two ore hot furnaces, and the output of Inner Mongolia is expected to be reduced by at least 40,000 tons in March. In the short term, affected by the policy, the spot price of ferrosilicon is mainly robust.
Export situation
In previous years, the average export growth value of magnesium ingots, magnesium alloys and magnesium powder was 2%, 6%, 0.23%. Due to the decline in overseas purchases and sea freight, the total export volume may shrink in the first quarter of 2021, and the export volume in March is expected to exceed the monthly average of the current quarter.
Under the condition that the overall environment is stable and good, it is expected to maintain the growth trend in the first quarter of this year. The average export growth value of magnesium ingots, magnesium alloys and magnesium powder is 2%, 6% and 0.23%. Magnesium ingot production rebounded slightly, magnesium alloy production rebounded, magnesium powder orders decreased in the same period last year, the general environment is weak to maintain stability, magnesium powder faces the peak purchasing season in March.
Market Prospect and Price Forecast
Short-term market continuous game: the market shows a weak and stable situation, a stalemate game between supply and demand, few transactions, low market activity, affected by high magnesium prices, heavy bearish sentiment downstream, the overall purchasing enthusiasm is not high, the market is still in a sawing situation, magnesium prices face a small consolidation in the short term to seek a balance between supply and demand in the market.
In the long run, what is the supply and demand trend and price trend of magnesium market? As an important category of advanced basic materials industry, China's magnesium alloy industry has independently developed more than 10 kinds of magnesium alloy materials and successfully applied in aviation, aerospace, national defense, automobile and other fields since the implementation of a series of strategic measures of the 13th five-year Plan, which greatly reduced the cost of magnesium alloy products and enhanced the competitiveness of the product market. China is rich in magnesium resources. Stimulated by the demand for automobile energy saving, emission reduction and lightweight, it is expected to promote the further development of the consumption market of magnesium alloy materials and bring challenges and challenges to the development of the industry.
It is understood that more than 70% of the world's magnesium resources are in China. How should such rich resources be used? What works do magnesium and magnesium alloys play in our lives? For this reason, Shanghai Nonferrous net specially held the "2021 China magnesium Industry chain High Forum" focusing on the application of magnesium alloy in automobile and rail transit industry. We will be guided by the terminal product application and user demand of magnesium alloy material market. Invite the original magnesium, magnesium alloy, deep processing and terminal enterprises together to discuss the way of innovation and development of China's magnesium industry chain industry.
SMM will solemnly hold the 2021 China magnesium Industry chain Summit Forum in Chongqing on March 25-26, 2021, inviting industry experts, scholars and enterprise bigwigs to conduct a comprehensive interpretation of the above market concerns and important topics closely related to the development of the industry and enterprises.
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