SMM: the global primary aluminum market has an oversupply of 908000 tons from January to May 2020 and 780000 tons for the whole of 2019, according to a report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) on Wednesday.
The demand for primary aluminum from January to May 2020 was 26.33 million tons, an increase of 285000 tons over the same period in 2019.
Demand is measured on an apparent basis, and the full impact of the national blockade imposed to contain the Xinguan pneumonia epidemic may not be fully reflected in trade statistics.
Global primary aluminum production increased by 4.0% from January to May. Total inventories were reported to have increased during the first five months, which as of the end of May was 165000 tons higher than the December 2019 level. Shanghai inventories rose steadily at the start of the year, but fell 162000 tonnes to 296300 tonnes in May. It was 185100 tons at the end of December 2019. LME stocks stood at 1.496 million tons, compared with 1.473 million tons at the end of 2019.
A large number of unreported inventory changes are not taken into account in consumption statistics, especially unreported inventory held in Asia.
Overall, global primary aluminum production increased by 4.0% from January to May 2020 compared with the same period last year. China's production is estimated at 14.7898 million tons, accounting for about 54 per cent of global production due to increased imports of bauxite and alumina supplies.
China's apparent demand increased by 3.9% from January to May 2019, and the output of semi-finished products increased by 6.4%. China will become a net importer of unwrought aluminum in 2020. From January to May 2020, the net export volume of China's aluminum semi-finished products was 1.786 million tons, compared with 2.062 million tons in the same period last year. Exports of semi-finished products fell by about 14% compared with the total in April 2020.
From January to May, production from the 28 countries of the European Union fell 2.2% from a year earlier, and NAFTA production increased by 4.5%. Demand in the 28 countries of the European Union fell 554000 tons compared with the same period last year.
From January to May, global demand increased by 1.1% compared with the same period last year.
In May 2020, the output of primary aluminum was 5.4492 million tons and the demand was 5.3878 million tons.
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