[2019.7.23 minutes of nickel internal morning meeting] nickel prices continue to fall back and wait for funds to move

Macro: starting this week, the Fed will enter a period of silence. Previously, the agency did not agree on a rate cut, and the market is now expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The Sino-US trade talks seem to have taken a turn for the better. It is reported that China is considering plans to increase US soybean purchases, or include waiving retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans. In China, the central bank has launched reverse buybacks for the fifth day in a row since it restarted open market operations last week. In contrast, there will be a lot of money due this week. On July 23, 160 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will expire, and 502 billion yuan of MLF will expire on the same day. The reverse repurchase scale due from Wednesday to Friday will be 100 billion yuan, with a cumulative amount of 962 billion yuan.

Nickel spot: July 22 SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 114600 116400 yuan / ton. Russian nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 sticker 350-paste 300 yuan / ton, basically stable than last Friday. Nickel price correction yesterday, the morning as a whole around 105000 yuan / ton narrow range fluctuations, the market response is flat, more for traders to inquire each other, downstream buyers are very few. Although the spot transaction is cold, but the holder because recently does not have the massive source of goods to flow into the domestic, basically by the straight rise discount water primarily. Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 contract generally reported a water rise of 1300 yuan to 1, 500 yuan / ton, a small increase from Friday. Jinchuan nickel is also high due to nickel prices, downstream procurement decreased, but the recent Jinchuan nickel circulation is tight, resulting in a slight increase in rising water.

Nickel pig iron: according to SMM research, a southern steel plant this week high nickel iron purchase price of 1080 to 1100 yuan / nickel point, to the plant tax, compared with last week 1080 to 1090 yuan / nickel point transaction price increased slightly, of which 1100 yuan / nickel point high-end price is a large order; in addition, if the chromium content is high, you can increase the price to 1120 yuan / nickel point.

Stainless steel: on July 22, the guidance price of Wuxi stainless steel plant was raised by 100 to 200 yuan / ton, but the market offer was flat compared with Friday. After a continuous increase in stainless steel prices last week, the market quotation was generally stable yesterday, with 304 NO.1 in Wuxi quoted at 14400 to 14600 yuan / ton and 304 / 2B at 15000 to 15200 yuan / ton. Some agents said that at present, most traders hold a wait-and-see attitude and inquire frequently, but there are fewer actual transaction orders.

Stocks: 147600 tons of nickel on 22 July, a decrease of 318 tons compared with 19 July.

Judgment of nickel price: the continuous rise of nickel price in the early stage is more divorced from the fundamentals, which is closely related to the positive measures of large stainless steel plants, and the products in each link of the industrial chain are also in a state of passive follow-up; it is normal for prices to return rationally and some of the bulls have made profits this week, and it is normal to wait and see to pay attention to the trend of funds in the follow-up. At present, there are no signs of massive withdrawal.