[SMM analysis] the operating rate of aluminum profiles fell month-on-month in June, and a second consecutive decline is expected in July.

Recently, SMM has communicated with dozens of domestic profile enterprises, through investigation, analysis and data calculation, it is found that the start-up rate in June is down from the previous month, and it is difficult to recover in July. The opening rate of the aluminum profile industry was 60.79% in June, down 1.33% from May and 1.65% from last year.

In terms of different product types, as June approaches the off-season of traditional consumption, the operating rate of construction profile enterprises as a whole has declined slightly, but it has remained at a high level of more than 61%. The operating rate of industrial profile enterprises has fallen slightly month on month, and there has been no sharp drop in the previous forecast, or even an increase of about 8% over the same period last year. According to SMM analysis, due to the emergence of the "531" policy last year, the operating rate of photovoltaic profiles fell by a cliff, affecting the overall operating rate of industrial profiles, and although the performance of automobile profiles this year is relatively poor, its impact is still smaller than that of last year's photovoltaic profiles, and enterprises have reported that the orders and output of photovoltaic, rail cross-section profiles, and aluminum formwork products this year are still good, so the overall operating rate of industrial materials is slightly lower than that of the previous month. It was higher than last year. In addition, in terms of enterprise size, large enterprises began to feel the decline in orders in June. Because of their small scale and flexible adjustment of business strategy, medium-sized enterprises are more likely to maintain their own output at a stable level, while small enterprises are most obviously affected. because of the small ability to resist risks and the competitiveness of the industry, the operation is vulnerable to the decrease in the overall order of the industry. Coupled with the introduction of sports meetings in some areas, environmental inspection and other reasons, the output and orders of small enterprises have declined by different degrees.

Source: SMM

Taken together, we expect the overall operating rate of the aluminum profile industry to be around 59% in July, down nearly 2% from this month. July into the traditional seasonal off-season, according to some research enterprises reflect, this year's market is not as good as last year, SMM analysis that last year the real estate market is relatively active, building materials and some industrial materials orders good performance, the formation of "July / August off-season is not light" phenomenon, so last July the overall profile start-up rate is relatively high, and this year or will enter the normal off-season, difficult to show last year's good condition, the start-up rate will therefore be inferior to the same period last year. The author further speculates that if the results of the survey end in July are basically in line with expectations, SMM expects it to be difficult to show a significant improvement in August.