ICSG: Refined copper market ended in deficit during Jan- July 2016

October 24, 2016 08:00:48 AM
SPOKANE (Scrap Monster): The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released preliminary data for the month of July this year in its October 2016 Copper Bulletin published yesterday. According to preliminary ICSG data, copper production and usage data points to an apparent production deficit of nearly 264,000 metric tonnes.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released preliminary data for the month of July this year in its October 2016 Copper Bulletin published yesterday. According to preliminary ICSG data, copper production and usage data points to an apparent production deficit of nearly 264,000 metric tonnes.

The refined copper market balance for the month of July ‘16 alone showed an apparent production surplus of nearly 133,000 metric tonnes. The apparent refined copper demand from China remained weak during the month. The production surplus for the month, after making seasonal adjustments for global refined copper production and usage, stood at 105,000 metric tonnes. The refined copper balance for the first seven-month period of the year ended in production deficit of around 264,000 metric tonnes as compared with the deficit of around 7,000 tonnes during the same period in 2015.

World refined copper production increased by nearly 2.8% (nearly 370,000 t) during the first seven months of 2016 in comparison with the corresponding seven-month period from January to July last year. Primary production was up 2.5%, whereas the secondary production was up by 5%. The refined copper production during the month witnessed significant growth of 6% in China. The production by the US witnessed an increase of 15%. The output by Chile and Japan witnessed rise of 2% and 3% respectively. The other regions to report rise in refined output were the Americas (6%), Asia (5%) and Oceania (8%). On the other hand, the refined copper output by African region declined by 14%. The declined output from the region was mainly on account of temporary production cuts in some regions of the DRC and Zambia. The output by European region too witnessed decline of 3%.The worldwide refineries reported capacity utilization rate of 83%, more or less unchanged from that during the same period a year before.

The world copper mine production has increased by around 5.0% (nearly 560,000 t) during the initial seven-month period of 2016. Concentrate production was up by 6.5% during the period. The mine output from Peru reported significant improvement of 47%, primarily on account of new and expanded capacities becoming online during the past two years. The recovery in production by Canada, the US and Mongolia and expanded capacity in Mexico also contributed to the sharp recovery in production levels. The production declined by 5% in Chile during the month. The mine output from the DRC too dropped sharply by 9% year-on-year. Region-wise, Asia recorded 8% rise in production. Also Americas recorded 7.0% rise in output. On the other hand, the Africa region recorded production decline of 4.5%. The production held flat over the previous year in Oceania. The mine output by the European region remained flat during Jan-July ‘16. The mine capacity utilization rates remained essentially unchanged during the first seven-month period this year at 84.5% when compared with the year-ago period.

Meantime, global usage of the metal is estimated to have increased by around 4% during January to July this year in comparison with the year before. The Chinese apparent demand increased sharply by 9%. The usage by world countries excluding China has registered marginal increase of 0.50%. The European demand rose by 3.5%, whereas it declined by 11% and 4.5% in Africa and the Americas.

The table given below provides World Refined Copper Supply Trends for the first seven months of the current year:

Note: The above figures are in thousand metric tonnes