The overseas bauxite market in August was characterised by a recovery in supply alongside persistently high costs. In Guinea, although the traditional rainy season, weather disruptions and policy uncertainties remained in place, monthly bauxite shipments rebounded significantly from July and stayed at relatively high levels.
At the same time, freight rates from Guinea to China continued to rise. Together with stronger mine-side cost support, this pushed imported bauxite prices higher during the first half of the month. However, with raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remaining elevated, downstream acceptance of higher-priced ore was limited. Imported bauxite prices therefore edged lower toward the end of the month, while the market remained caught in an ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
Prices
Imported bauxite prices generally showed a rise followed by a modest pullback in August. At the end of July, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index stood at around $70.87/mt. After entering August, the price centre continued to move higher, supported by rising freight rates, Guinea’s rainy season and increasing mining costs.
The SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index rose to $71.57/mt on August 6 and further to $71.72/mt on August 13. By August 20, the index had climbed to as high as $71.99/mt. It subsequently edged lower as Guinea’s shipments remained elevated and Chinese alumina refineries showed limited procurement willingness. As of August 28, the index stood at $71.75/mt, still around $0.88/mt higher than at the end of July.
For Guinea-origin bauxite, upstream producers and traders raised offers in early August amid stronger cost support. On August 6, Guinea bauxite CIF offers rose to $70-74/mt, with an average of around $72/mt, while FOB offers stood at $38-42/dmt, averaging approximately $40/dmt.
As the month progressed, however, price differences between buyers and sellers widened as Chinese alumina refineries continued to face high inventories and pressure on production margins. By August 20, Guinea bauxite CIF offers had eased to $70-73/mt. As of August 28, the SMM average Guinea bauxite CIF price stood at around $71.5/mt, while the average FOB price was approximately $40/dmt.
In the term-contract market, Guinea bauxite prices for August were higher than in July, with mainstream mid-month levels around $73-74/mt. However, Chinese alumina refineries showed limited willingness to accept these higher prices, with most intended purchase levels remaining around $70-71/mt. By the end of August, September term-contract offers were still largely concentrated in the $72-74/mt range, indicating that the gap between buyers’ and sellers’ expectations remained significant.
Shipments
In terms of shipments, using the same monthly cut-off convention as the July review, Guinea’s bauxite shipment volumes in the latest four published weeks through August 21 were approximately 3.8703 million mt, 4.5611 million mt, 4.6891 million mt and 4.1313 million mt, respectively. Overall shipment levels recovered significantly from July.
Weekly shipments peaked at approximately 4.6891 million mt in mid-August before easing slightly to 4.1313 million mt, but remained well above the levels recorded during most weeks in July.
The four-week total reached approximately 17.2518 million mt, corresponding to an average weekly shipment volume of around 4.3130 million mt. This was approximately 38.1% higher than the average of 3.1237 million mt across the four weeks covered in the July monthly review.
This indicates that although August remained within Guinea’s traditional rainy season, with weather continuing to affect road transportation, barging and other logistics links, actual shipment performance improved markedly from July. The recovery in supply also became one of the factors limiting further upside in imported bauxite prices toward the end of the month.
Freight rates from Guinea to China remained elevated throughout August. Market indications had already risen to around $35/wmt in early August. Supported by stronger international dry bulk demand and fuel-related factors, freight rates climbed to around $37-38/wmt in mid-August. By the end of the month, SMM market research indicated that Guinea-China freight rates remained at approximately $36-37/wmt.
Persistently high transportation costs continued to provide support to Guinea bauxite CIF prices.
Australia
Australian bauxite shipments remained comparatively stable. As of August 21, weekly shipments from major Australian ports over the latest four weeks stood at approximately 1.0527 million mt, 926,700 mt, 1.1008 million mt and 1.1598 million mt, respectively, implying an average of around 1.06 million mt per week. Overall volatility was significantly lower than in Guinea.
In terms of prices, as of August 28, the SMM average CIF China price for Australian low-temperature bauxite stood at $65/dmt, up around $1/mt from $64/dmt in late July. The average CIF China price for Australian high-temperature bauxite was approximately $58.5/dmt, broadly unchanged.
Outlook
Looking ahead to September, Guinea will remain within its traditional rainy season, and the impact of weather on mine transportation, barging and port loading efficiency will continue to require close attention. Uncertainty surrounding Guinea’s bauxite export policies also remains.
However, based on actual shipment performance in August, Guinea’s supply has already recovered significantly from July. If shipments remain at relatively high levels, supply-side support for imported bauxite prices may weaken to some extent.
On the other hand, freight rates from Guinea to China remain elevated, while rising costs at certain mines continue to limit sellers’ willingness to offer at lower prices.
By the end of August, bauxite inventory coverage at Chinese alumina refineries remained high at around 96 days. Comfortable raw material inventories have strengthened downstream bargaining power and reduced urgency to procure higher-priced ore.
SMM expects imported bauxite prices to remain rangebound at elevated levels in the short term. The market is likely to continue seeing a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers around the $70-74/mt range. Key factors to monitor include actual shipment performance during Guinea’s rainy season, potential changes in export policy, freight rates, and movements in raw material inventories at Chinese alumina refineries.
