[SMM Iron & Steel] El mercado de importación de palanquilla del Sudeste Asiático se debilita mientras los compradores esperan ofertas más bajas

The most-traded HRC contract fluctuated today, closing at 3,279 with a slight intraday decline of 0.3%. This week, cold-rolled and hot-rolled prices continued to weaken, and overall transaction volumes remained low. In terms of supply, the impact from mill line maintenance decreased WoW, leading to a slight increase in total HRC production. On the demand side, apparent demand dropped MoM. Regarding inventory, according to SMM statistics, HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) reached 4.3757 million mt, up 84,500 mt or 1.97% WoW, and up 43.10% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. By region, all markets saw inventory buildup WoW, with the Northeast market recording a relatively large buildup. Cost side, the ninth round of coke price increases was implemented this week. Influenced by raw material market news, costs showed a pattern of strength early on and weakness later. Looking ahead, although the market has initiated a tenth round of coke price hikes, hot metal output has slowly pulled back from its peak, and cost support is expected to remain flat compared to earlier estimates. From the HRC supply-demand perspective, the current imbalance continues to accumulate. Amid off-season demand, inventory pressure is expected to persist and weigh on prices. Combined with remaining cost-side support, downside room is relatively small. HRC prices are likely to show a bottom-consolidation pattern next week, with the most-traded HRC contract moving in the 3,250–3,330 range.

[Turquía] La demanda interna y de exportación de barras de refuerzo turcas se mantuvo débil durante toda la semana, lo que redujo su precio de exportación a 575 USD/tonelada FOB, principalmente debido a las continuas caídas en los inventarios de las fábricas y la falta de pedidos firmes de compra, mientras que las ofertas de HRC se redujeron a 585 USD/tonelada FOB. El mercado interno sigue estancado, con pocas expectativas de una recuperación significativa de la demanda este verano. Debido a la lenta recuperación de la demanda en la construcción, las grandes fábricas mantienen amplios inventarios de barras de refuerzo para entrega, mientras que los comerciantes dudan en reponer existencias debido al débil flujo de caja y los altos costos de endeudamiento.

La siguiente tabla muestra el movimiento de metales ferrosos y no ferrosos en SHFE y DCE el 3 de julio de 2026.