Oferta abundante en temporada de balances semestrales, la cautela de la demanda reduce los descuentos del cobre al contado [Cobre spot del norte de China, SMM]

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, on the inventory front, SMM data shows that Shanghai social inventory stood at 134,200 mt, down 4,100 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu inventory stood at 41,200 mt, down 900 mt WoW. Although some imported cargo arrived at ports, overall warehouse withdrawals last week were good, and inventory continued a slight destocking trend, providing some support for spot discounts. Supplier side, the month-end selling pressure has been largely released, and market shipments have returned to normal pace. Supplier quotations were relatively stable during the day, showing no signs of significant downward adjustments. Moreover, some suppliers are bullish on the premiums outlook, and their willingness to hold prices firm has strengthened. From the invoice structure, cargoes with invoices dated this month remain relatively tight, with a certain price spread maintained between current-month and next-month invoices. Overall, with the end of month-end selling, inventory destocking, and suppliers' firm price stance, the overall discount center of Shanghai spot copper against the 2607 contract is expected to edge up further tomorrow.

Análisis SMM | El 30 de junio marca un hito crítico en la investigación sobre el cobre según la Sección 232 de EE.UU. ¿Avanzarán los aranceles al cobre refinado como se espera? Ya sea que el resultado sea un arancel amplio, medidas focalizadas o una postergación con exenciones, la decisión podría reconfigurar el arbitraje COMEX–LME, las primas físicas en EE.UU., los flujos comerciales globales de cobre y las dinámicas regionales de suministro.