Steel Mills Favored Cost Control, Iron Ore Closed Down 1.29% [SMM Daily Review of Imported Ore]

Dalian iron ore was stronger in the morning session today, but pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 805 yuan/mt, down 1.29% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 3-7 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries; as of now, spot market transactions were average.

Fundamentals, inventory at the 10-port sample showed clear structural divergence this week. Among them, mainstream mid-grade ores such as PB fines and blended fines saw a notable inventory buildup, with PB fines surging 1.24 million WoW to nearly 9 million. In contrast, IOCJ fines, super special fines, and high-silicon Brazilian coarse ore bucked the trend and posted destocking. This divergence indicated that, against the backdrop of steel mill profits coming under pressure, the consumption side was accelerating toward extreme cost reduction. Steel mills generally adopted a barbell-style ore blending strategy of pairing high- and low-grade materials, significantly squeezing demand for mainstream mid-grade ore and putting further pressure on iron ore's upward momentum.

On the macro front, driven by persistently high inflation outside China and fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, tighter US dollar liquidity further weighed on bullish sentiment in commodities. Combined with pressure from elevated inventory on the micro side and weak demand for mid-grade ore, iron ore prices lacked drivers for an upward breakout in the short term and are expected to remain in the doldrums within a narrow range.