Silicon Metal Price Center Remained in the Doldrums [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM News, April 2:Silicon metal:This week, the silicon metal market remained weak and underwent consolidation, with transaction centers for some silicon metal grades edging slightly lower. As of April 2, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW; and #3303 silicon was at 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon metal contract also remained weak and consolidative. On Thursday, the SI2605 contract closed at 8,300 yuan/mt, down 435 yuan/mt WoW. Spot declines were narrower than futures prices, and suppliers’ shipping advantage shifted from silicon enterprises to trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market. During the week, market prices were under pressure, while procurement volume from some downstream users and export traders increased, and transactions in some grades were moderate.

On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of polysilicon remained stable. Silicon consumption by the polysilicon sector was around 105,000 mt in March, and April consumption is expected to increase slightly MoM. Recently, polysilicon prices continued to fall, and low-priced recharging polysilicon from polysilicon enterprises has been adjusted to around 35 yuan/kg. Attention should be paid to whether polysilicon enterprises will make any changes to operating rates going forward. The weekly operating rate of silicone enterprises was basically stable. Silicone-sector silicon consumption was around 107,000 mt in March, and April consumption is expected to be basically stable MoM. The weekly operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises was basically stable. Finished product inventories at some alloy enterprises showed signs of increase, and a small number of small secondary aluminum plants with insufficient orders were expected to suspend production briefly around the Qingming Festival, which may slightly affect changes in operating rates next week.

On the supply side, operating rates at silicon enterprises in different regions both increased and decreased, with overall changes remaining limited. The price of the most-traded silicon metal futures contract fell again to 8,300 yuan/mt. Most silicon-producing enterprises were generally operating at a loss, cost support below strengthened, and the market hovered at lows in consolidation.

Polysilicon:This week, the polysilicon price index was 36.65 yuan/kg, with N-type recharging polysilicon quoted at 35-38 yuan/kg and granular polysilicon quoted at 34-36 yuan/kg. This week, polysilicon prices continued to decline, and panic/bearish sentiment remained in the market. At present, downstream prices also appeared not to have stopped falling, and some leading polysilicon manufacturers also cut prices to move shipments, leaving sentiment still weak. In April, news of maintenance at some manufacturers, changes to futures trading rules, and cost considerations may together provide some support for prices at low levels.

Wafer:This week, wafer prices diverged. Among them, N-type 183 wafers were priced at 0.98-1.00 yuan/piece, 210R wafers were quoted at 1.03-1.05 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers were quoted at 1.25-1.3 yuan/piece. Among them, 183 wafers held steady, while the price ranges for 210R and 210N wafers moved lower. China, lower costs and weakening demand are the core reasons for the decline in wafer prices. In the short term, there are still no clear signs of a bottoming out, so wafer prices are expected to have further downside room. Outside China, after the tax rebate is canceled, the VAT portion will most likely be borne by overseas enterprise procurement, so prices are relatively unlikely to swing wildly.

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