Overseas Mining Bottlenecks Advance SHFE Tin Contracts Retreat from Highs Amid Stable Supply Expectations [SMM Tin Noon Commentary]

On March 2, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin sn2604 contract opened with a significant drop in the morning and then fluctuated, closing at noon at 439,320 yuan/mt, up 1.87%, with the actual intraday performance being weak, and the gain mainly driven by the night session on Friday. In the LME market, the three-month tin futures prices also declined, temporarily quoted at $55,750/mt, down 3.96%.

Last week, the conflict in Myanmar sparked market concerns over disruptions to tin ore supply, with speculative funds actively entering the market, driving futures prices to rise sharply. However, the location of the conflict is far from the main tin-producing area of Wa State, having limited direct impact on actual mining and transportation. Market sentiment gradually digested this, limiting further upward momentum. Additionally, on February 27, the Wa State Industrial Minerals Administration issued a notice regarding the process for sharing deep mine dewatering costs, making substantial progress on the long-standing dewatering issue in high-grade mines, indicating that Wa State may be on track for full production resumptions. As expectations for stable supply from Myanmar returned, weakening earlier sentiment support, the SHFE tin contract fell in the morning session today.

In terms of spot, downstream enterprises have gradually resumed production, but with futures prices still at high levels, companies generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, opting to consume pre-holiday inventories, with low willingness for new purchases. Post-holiday, there has not been a noticeable increase in terminal orders; most enterprises are still executing pre-holiday orders, leading to slow raw material digestion and sluggish spot transactions.

In the short term, macro sentiment support for tin prices has weakened, with investment focus shifting towards mainstream sectors, and market sentiment cooling. The current physical performance of the tin market is weak, with the contradiction between high prices and lagging demand still accumulating. Tin prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Subsequent attention should be paid to the recovery dynamics of downstream demand and the actual progress of production resumptions in Myanmar.