[The most-traded SHFE tin contract pulled back significantly in the night session, and spot market transactions are expected to recover. SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Briefing on March 3, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated downward during the night session, once falling to around 415,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 416,600 yuan/mt, down 7.16%.

Macro: (1) On March 2, NDRC Chairman Zheng Shajie hosted a symposium for private enterprises, soliciting opinions and suggestions on expanding domestic demand, stabilizing investment, and achieving a good start for economic development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Executives from sectors including automation equipment, modern seed industry, shipbuilding, and artificial intelligence attended the meeting. At the meeting, the executives provided detailed introductions about the opportunities and challenges facing their respective industries, all expressing their commitment to actively adapting to changes in the situation, increasing investment, accelerating technological innovation, and continuously improving the quality of products and services, contributing to high-quality national economic and social development while achieving their own growth. (2) To actively implement the "Automotive Industry Price Behavior Compliance Guidelines" issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation in February 2026, and to promote the standardization and normalization of price behavior in the automotive industry, the China Automobile Dealers Association will officially launch the preparatory work for a relevant working group this month, taking multiple measures to ensure the effective implementation of the guidelines. This working group will focus on the core requirements of the guidelines, addressing the pain points of price compliance in the production and sales stages of the automotive industry, leading the sorting out of practical difficulties in the industry, and coordinating the research and formulation of detailed measures for the guidelines. During the preparation period, the association will hold special meetings weekly, sincerely inviting member units to actively contribute ideas and share industry practice experiences, collaborating with experts to improve and refine the measures, ensuring they are both compliant and practical, fitting the current reality of the automotive industry's development.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: In March, it is expected that most smelters will gradually resume production, ending their holiday state. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchases were cautious, with downstream enterprises gradually resuming operations, but order conditions were mediocre.

Spot market: Currently, downstream enterprises have successively returned to production, but futures prices remain high, and enterprises generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, mostly choosing to digest pre-holiday inventory, with low willingness for new purchases. Post-holiday terminal orders have not yet seen a significant increase, with most enterprises still executing orders received before the holiday, leading to a slow digestion rate of raw materials overall, and sluggish spot transactions.

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