Traditional solder consumption was weak due to the impact of the off-season, and transactions in the spot market were mainly driven by just-in-time procurement. [SMM Tin Market Brief]

Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract on February 25, 2025

On February 25, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2503) opened at 264,290 yuan/mt, reached an intraday high of 264,900 yuan/mt, and dipped to a low of 262,020 yuan/mt before closing at 263,300 yuan/mt, down 0.93% from the previous trading day. The trading volume amounted to 11.94 billion yuan, with open interest fluctuating slightly.

Today, SHFE tin futures exhibited a fluctuating pullback pattern. In the morning session, supported by low LME tin inventory levels and tight domestic tin ore supply, prices briefly surged to 265,500 yuan/mt. Subsequently, due to the rebound in the US dollar index weighing on risk assets and profit-taking by bulls, prices pulled back to around 262,400 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, market sentiment failed to recover, and prices closed at 263,300 yuan/mt. Technical analysis indicates that the most-traded SHFE tin contract faced resistance in the 262,000-265,000 yuan/mt range. The MACD indicator showed shrinking red bars, and trading volume did not expand significantly, suggesting short-term adjustment pressure.

• The expectation that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in March strengthened, with the US dollar index rebounding slightly to 106.69, exerting pressure on base metal prices.

• The PBOC's expected easing policies provided support for market liquidity, but investors remained cautious about global inflation data and the US Fed's policy direction.

• On the supply side, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar has yet to materialize, and domestic tin concentrate TC remained at low levels. Although LME tin inventory slightly decreased to 3,610 mt, it remained at historically low levels, sustaining supply pressure.

• On the demand side, traditional consumption (such as solder and tinplate) was weak due to the off-season, and spot market transactions were dominated by just-in-time procurement.

In the short term, SHFE tin futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating downward trend, with the main trading range referenced at 260,000-265,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to monitor include the progress of tin mining resumption in Myanmar, the US Fed's policy statements, and the pace of downstream resumption in China. If supply-side disruptions ease or macroeconomic bearish factors intensify, prices may undergo further corrections.