Market Concerns Over "High Tin Prices Suppressing Demand" Intensify; SHFE Tin Prices Pull Back at Midday [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract on February 24, 2025

The most-traded SHFE tin 2503 contract opened at 263,800 yuan/mt, reached an intraday high of 267,800 yuan/mt, and dipped to a low of 263,500 yuan/mt before closing at 263,730 yuan/mt, down approximately 0.41% from the previous trading day. Trading volume and open interest fluctuated slightly compared to the prior day, with market activity remaining robust.

Today, SHFE tin futures exhibited a fluctuate upward trend. In the morning session, prices were supported by expectations of tight supply, opening higher and briefly spiking to 266,800 yuan/mt. Subsequently, prices rebounded and settled within the intraday high range due to partial profit-taking by bulls and resistance from the US dollar rebound. Technically, the most-traded SHFE tin contract found short-term support in the 262,000-265,000 yuan/mt range. The MACD indicator showed a slight expansion of red bars, but trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating persistent market divergence.

The US Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in March with a 94% probability, though market bets on a May interest rate cut remain divided. The US dollar index rebounded slightly, exerting pressure on risk assets. Meanwhile, expectations of easing policies by the domestic central bank have strengthened, with the liquidity environment providing support for base metal prices.

Capital Flows: Bullish funds dominated intraday trading, but open interest decreased slightly, indicating that some investors opted to take profits at higher levels.

Sentiment Divergence: Concerns over "high tin prices suppressing demand" have intensified, but expectations of tight supply and new energy demand continue to support bullish sentiment.

In the short term, SHFE tin futures are expected to maintain a high-level fluctuation pattern, with the main trading range referenced at 262,000-268,000 yuan/mt. Short-term traders may focus on opportunities for selling high and buying low within the range, with stop-loss levels referencing support/resistance points.

Risk Warning: Unexpected resumption of overseas tin mine production, changes in demand-side policies, and tightening macro liquidity could trigger price volatility.