Market Volatility May Intensify Ahead of the US Fed's March Meeting, SHFE Tin Prices Continue to Fluctuate Upward [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Midday Review of the SHFE Tin 2503 Contract on February 24, 2025

On the morning of February 24, 2025, the SHFE tin 2503 contract exhibited a fluctuate at highs trend. The opening price was 266,000 yuan/mt, but subsequently, supported by expectations of tightening supply and improved macro sentiment, prices fluctuated at highs, reaching an intraday peak of 266,600 yuan/mt and eventually closing at 265,200 yuan/mt at midday, up 480 yuan or 0.18% from the previous trading day. Trading volume stood at 54,200 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,834 lots to 21,300 lots.

Today, the price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract continued its recent fluctuate upward pattern. The morning session opened lower, mainly pressured by the overnight decline in US equities and the high-level operation of the US dollar index. However, prices quickly rebounded, driven by a reduction in LME tin inventory (inventory on February 21 stood at 3,690 mt, down 110 mt from the previous day) and optimistic expectations ahead of the domestic Two Sessions. Technically, the SHFE tin 2503 contract has broken through the key resistance level of 265,000 yuan/mt, forming a high-level fluctuation platform within the range of 263,000 to 267,000 yuan/mt in the short term. Bullish funds continued to enter the market, leveraging the logic of tight supply, but profit-taking at high levels was also observed. Fluctuations in open interest indicate that market sentiment leans toward cautious speculation.

Risk Warning: Market volatility may intensify ahead of the US Fed's March meeting. Close attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar index and global macroeconomic data.