The Potentially Tough Choices Facing the US Fed; SHFE Tin Prices Suppress Spot Market Transactions [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

The Potential Tough Choices Facing the US Fed SHFE Tin Prices Suppress Spot Market Transactions [SMM Tin Morning Brief] On Thursday, US Fed's Mussailem mentioned two major risks: rising inflation expectations and the challenging issue of stagflation, highlighting the potential tough choices the US Fed faces. Mussailem stated that while many of his colleagues believe inflation expectations are anchored, he is concerned that recent data suggests inflation expectations may be rising, which could force the US Fed onto a more restrictive path. In his speech, Mussailem did not provide his current view on the expectation of an interest rate cut this year. However, his warning indicates that the US Fed's main narrative of declining inflation and eventual further interest rate cuts could become more complicated, even though this outlook remains the baseline forecast. Officials also acknowledge that the Trump administration's new import tariffs and immigration rules could impact prices. In the futures market, during yesterday's night session, SHFE tin prices opened higher and slightly climbed before adjusting to around 264,800 yuan/mt before the close. The overall open interest of SHFE tin contracts increased. SHFE tin prices remained in a high-level consolidation, while the spot market was sluggish. A few downstream enterprises made purchases at later pricing points, but most downstream enterprises only maintained minimal just-in-time procurement or used inventory for production. Overall market transactions were weak. If SHFE tin prices continue to hover around 265,000 yuan/mt, the spot market is likely to remain subdued.