Tin Ore Supply Side Disturbances Persist, Spot Market Transactions Gradually Recover [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Briefing on February 10, 2025 Last week, the tin market exhibited strong futures performance and relatively weak spot market activity, primarily influenced by supply-side disruptions and positive macroeconomic signals. The most-traded SHFE tin futures contract continued to rise after the holiday, with significant gains. As of February 7, the average price of SMM #1 tin ingot was 259,300 yuan/mt, up by 300 yuan/mt from the previous week. In terms of supply, armed conflicts in North Kivu Province of the DRC heightened concerns over disruptions in African tin ore supply, while the mining ban in Wa State, Myanmar, remained in place, further supporting expectations of rising tin prices. On the demand side, although most downstream enterprises gradually resumed operations after the Chinese New Year holiday, end-user purchasing willingness was weak, leading to subdued spot market demand and overall low operating rates. Additionally, on the macroeconomic front, US January ADP employment increased by 183,000, far exceeding expectations, indicating resilience in the labour market. However, the ISM services PMI fell short of expectations, and the US Fed's interest rate cut policy remained on hold, which somewhat constrained the upward momentum of tin prices. In the short term, SHFE tin prices are expected to hover at highs. Investors should closely monitor changes in overseas ore supply and macroeconomic policy trends, while being cautious of volatility risks arising from the correction of the spread between futures and spot prices.