SMM, January 16:
Since mid-to-late October 2024, imported bauxite prices have accelerated their rise, with bulk transaction prices surging from $75-77/mt to a peak of $128-130/mt. However, recently, spot alumina prices have accelerated their decline. As of this Thursday, aluminum smelters in north-west China tendered for 5,000 mt of spot alumina, equivalent to an ex-factory price of 3,800 yuan/mt in Shanxi; in Henan, 8,000 mt of spot alumina were transacted at a price of 4,050 yuan/mt. The profit margin for alumina refineries has significantly narrowed, putting pressure on the peak of bauxite prices, and suppliers' quotations have shown a certain degree of pullback.
For alumina refineries in Shanxi and Henan, according to SMM's simple calculations, if Guinean bauxite is used as raw material, with a CIF price of $100/mt for Guinean bauxite and a delivery-to-factory price of caustic soda at 2,980-3,080 yuan/mt, the full cost of alumina production is approximately 3,900-4,000 yuan/mt. If the CIF price of Guinean bauxite rises to $120/mt while other conditions remain unchanged, the full cost of alumina production would be around 4,300-4,400 yuan/mt.
Currently, the latest transaction prices for spot alumina in Shanxi and Henan have fallen to levels near the full cost of producing alumina using Guinean bauxite priced at $100/mt, significantly reducing alumina refineries' willingness to accept high-priced bauxite. According to SMM, recent quotations from bauxite suppliers are around $110-125/mt, but no actual transactions have been reported. In the short term, bauxite may enter a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, and the future price trend of bauxite will depend on the latest bulk transaction price guidance.
(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)
Source: SMM Click on the SMM industry database for more information
(Mingxin Guo 021-51595800)
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