[SMM Analysis] Domestic Tin Ore Imports Dropped Back Slightly in November, Expected to Decline Further

In November, domestic tin ore imports totaled 12,000 mt (approximately 5,021 mt metal content), down 19.18% MoM and 56.46% YoY, a decrease of 23 mt metal content compared to October. From January to November, cumulative imports reached 150,000 mt, down 29.68% YoY. In November, domestic tin ingot imports amounted to 3,519 mt, up 15.34% MoM but down 34.18% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to November totaled 18,813 mt, down 38.01% YoY.

In November, domestic tin ore imports showed a slight pullback, mainly due to a decline in tin ore imports from Myanmar and Bolivia, while imports from other countries remained basically flat. Specifically, tin ore imports from Myanmar in November were 3,000 mt (approximately 892 mt metal content), slightly down compared to October 2024. Although the Wa State authorities in Myanmar have expressed intentions to resume production, no clear timeline has been provided. Based on current market analysis and forecasts, tin ore imports from Myanmar are expected to continue declining by year-end. Meanwhile, tin ore imports from the DRC increased to some extent, while Bolivia's tin ore imports did not maintain the previous month's trend and showed a decline. Imports from other countries remained basically flat compared to previous periods and are expected to maintain the current levels going forward. On the other hand, with the intermittent opening of the tin ingot import profit window, domestic tin ingot imports began to rebound. According to the latest data, tin ingot imports in November increased to 3,519 mt, with imports from Indonesia reaching 3,009 mt. Tin ingot imports in December are expected to remain at the current level or increase slightly. However, given the limited and unstable opening of the import profit window, tin ingot imports are unlikely to recover to the levels of the same period last year. Additionally, domestic tin ingot exports in November remained stable at 1,457 mt, down 6.06% MoM but up 42.42% YoY. From January to November 2024, cumulative exports reached 16,521 mt, up 36.93% YoY. However, considering the recent closure of the export window, tin ingot exports are unlikely to see significant growth in the future.