SMM Morning Comment: Alumina Exports Up, Short-Term Prices Expected to Fluctuate Amid Supply-Demand Dynamics

[SMM Morning Comment on Alumina: November Alumina Exports Reached 190,000 mt, Short-Term Alumina Prices Expected to Fluctuate]

Supply side, domestic alumina operating rates slightly declined this week, mainly due to the impact of environmental protection policies in northern regions on the roasting process at some alumina refineries, as well as maintenance of roasting furnaces at certain refineries. Demand side, SMM learned that some aluminum smelters in Sichuan Province have recently started production cuts due to losses and maintenance needs, which are expected to affect a total aluminum capacity of 205,000 mt/year, leading to a slight decrease in downstream production demand.

Overall, the short-term alumina fundamentals are unlikely to see a significant surplus. Suppliers still show sentiment to stand firm on quotes, but with alumina prices remaining high, downstream buyers exhibit strong resistance to high prices, resulting in relatively cautious spot procurement. In the short term, the market may enter a stage of back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream, with spot alumina prices likely to remain stable and fluctuate.