End-use demand remains optimistic, with copper foil enterprises maintaining high operating rates in Q4 [SMM Analysis]

According to an SMM survey, in November 2024, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 75.48%, down 0.13 percentage points MoM and 2.32 percentage points YoY. Among these, large enterprises had an operating rate of 80.69%, medium-sized enterprises at 57.45%, and small enterprises at 66.75%. Specifically, the operating rate for electronic circuit copper foil was 75.75%, decreasing by 1.62 percentage points MoM and 4.85 percentage points YoY, while for lithium battery copper foil, it was 75.32%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points MoM and a decrease of 1.1 percentage points YoY. The overall operating rate for the copper foil industry is forecast to slightly decline to 75.07% in December. (Survey covered 35 companies, 58 production bases, with a total capacity of 1.5156 million mt)

November copper foil enterprise operating rate at 75.48%

In November, the overall operating rate of domestic copper foil enterprises slightly declined but remained at a high level for the year. On one hand, stimulated by trade-in policies, end-use demand performed well; on the other hand, due to the cancellation of export tax rebates for copper foil and copper clad laminates and the reduction for lithium-ion batteries in December, there was a rush to fulfill export orders in November. However, the overall operating rate declined, mainly due to the downward shift in copper prices. Specifically, the operating rate for lithium battery copper foil rose slightly, driven by policies, with automakers pushing for annual targets at the NEV market, continuing the strong demand trend; in the energy storage sector, with the year-end grid connection period approaching, downstream procurement was active. The operating rate for electronic circuit copper foil decreased, but orders from the automotive and high-end server industries performed relatively well.

November copper foil industry finished product inventories decreased

In November, the finished product inventory/output ratio in the copper foil industry decreased by 1.3 percentage points MoM to 17.42%, with noticeable inventory reduction due to good downstream orders and year-end inventory reduction measures by companies. The raw material inventory ratio increased by 0.26 percentage points MoM to 18.16%, as copper prices fell in November, leading to an increase in raw material procurement.

December copper foil industry operating rate forecast to decline to 75.07%

SMM forecasts that in December 2024, the overall operating rate for copper foil enterprises will be 75.07%, down 0.41 percentage points MoM and up 6.09 percentage points YoY. The operating rate for lithium battery copper foil is expected to be 74.01%, down 1.31 percentage points MoM and up 9.37 percentage points YoY. The operating rate for electronic circuit copper foil is forecast to be 76.96%, up 1.2 percentage points MoM and 0.62 percentage points YoY.

SMM forecasts a slight decrease in the overall operating rate for copper foil enterprises in December, mainly due to the need for companies to recoup funds and reduce inventory levels at the year-end. From the perspective of end-use demand, in the lithium battery copper foil sector, the trend of rushing for installations is expected to continue. In the electronic circuit copper foil sector, as the holiday approaches, there is a demand for stockpiling. Additionally, with copper prices expected to rise in December and an upward trend in copper foil processing fees, shipments are expected to remain high.