Demand Support Remains Weak: How Will Rare Earth Prices Trend? [SMM Analysis]

Last week, rare earth market prices fluctuated rangebound. Pr-Nd oxide rose to 412,000-415,000 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.85%; dysprosium oxide fell to 1.66-1.67 million yuan/mt, a decrease of 1.77%; terbium oxide dropped to 5.75-5.8 million yuan/mt, a decrease of 1.37%; Pr-Nd alloy prices rose to 508,000-510,000 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.39%.

Last week, influenced by information factors, medium-heavy rare earth prices continued to decline, stabilizing only at the weekend. Due to month-end long-term contract deliveries by upstream separation plants, low-priced supplies tightened, and separation enterprises maintained firm quotations. However, market inquiries were not very active, and Pr-Nd product prices remained relatively stable. In the downstream magnetic material market, order growth was slow, and enterprises generally adhered to a purchasing as needed strategy. The trading activity of metal plants was not high, but due to severe losses, enterprises were unwilling to sell at low prices, leading to a strong market sentiment of wait-and-see.

Additionally, the magnetic material market showed significant polarization. While large enterprises were in full production, small enterprises faced market contraction and difficulties in customer development, with weak order growth and production schedules of less than a month, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Moreover, the order prices received by enterprises were generally low, leading to compressed profits and a pessimistic outlook for the future market.

However, some industry insiders believe that there might be stockpiling before the Chinese New Year in December, with downstream orders possibly increasing slightly. Based on the above situation, SMM expects that rare earth prices may remain stable and slightly strong.