Diminished US Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations Boost US Dollar Index, Copper Prices Open Lower [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

LME copper opened at $9,038.5/mt overnight, initially rising to a high of $9,086/mt before maintaining a wide fluctuation range. It then fell to a low of $9,002/mt towards the end of the session, before rebounding to close at $9,023/mt, down 0.65%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest was 269,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2501 contract opened at 74,110 yuan/mt, initially rising to a high of 74,250 yuan/mt before declining throughout the session to a low of 73,800 yuan/mt, and finally closing at 73,840 yuan/mt, down 0.89%. Trading volume reached 33,000 lots, and open interest was 143,000 lots. On the macro front, US Fed's Goolsbee reiterated support for further interest rate cuts and expressed openness to a slower pace of action. Market expectations suggest fewer interest rate cuts by the Fed next year, boosting the US dollar index and putting pressure on copper prices. In terms of fundamentals, overall market consumption remained stable. Although smelter inventories were low and social inventories decreased, a large influx of imported copper was observed during the week. As of Thursday, November 21, SMM copper inventory in major regions nationwide increased by 2,100 mt to 161,300 mt compared to Monday, but decreased by 3,000 mt compared to last Thursday, marking the fifth consecutive week of destocking, although the destocking speed is slowing. Overall, the strong US dollar index is expected to exert some resistance to copper prices today. Attention should be paid to the routine policy briefing; if favourable macro policies are released, market sentiment may improve.