SMM Analysis On China October Refined Tin Production And November Forecast

According to the latest assessment by SMM, in October 2024, China's refined tin production showed a significant recovery trend. After experiencing a sharp decline in production in September due to raw material shortages and shutdowns for maintenance at some smelters, the overall production of tin ingots in October has shown a clear upward trend with the resumption of operations at some smelters.

In Yunnan, although the quantity of tin ore imported from Myanmar remained low, the import volume in October increased compared to September, which alleviated the raw material pressure in the region to some extent. Additionally, with some smelters ending their shutdowns for maintenance and resuming normal operations in October, a solid foundation was laid for the recovery of production in Yunnan.

Meanwhile, smelters in Jiangxi actively sought solutions to the challenges of raw material supply, such as expanding the procurement channels for tin scrap, to ensure the stability of current production. In Inner Mongolia and Guangxi, the production activities of smelters continued to remain stable. However, in Anhui and other regions, the increased difficulty in obtaining raw materials has affected the production of smelters to some extent, and it is expected that their subsequent production may face challenges in maintaining current levels.

Considering all the above factors, we forecast that in November, the national production of tin ingots may see a slight decline. Given the uncertainty in the import situation of tin ore from Wa State in Myanmar and the increasingly prominent raw material supply issues for smelters, all market participants need to remain highly vigilant and closely monitor the latest developments in the raw material market to respond promptly to potential market fluctuations.